In China Post #620 there are three topics;-
First; the role of the Henry Jackson Society in UK-China relations
Second; the Fall and Rise of North Korea
Third; U.S. Business in China – Prospects
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EXTRACTS
#1 THE HENRY JACKSON SOCIETY
A HOUSE OF COMMONS MEETING
“This expert panel convened by the Henry Jackson Society, will examine the scale, scope and methods of Chinese influence operations in the UK. The discussion will focus on Chinese technology, organised crime networks, espionage cases currently under investigation, and significant historical examples of Chinese intelligence activity.
21.04. 26
3pm-4pm
House of Commons”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
The Henry Jackson Society (“HJS”) describes itself as follows
“HJS is named for Henry M. “Scoop” Jackson, a Democratic US Senator who strongly supported civil rights and protecting the environment — while also maintaining a strong opposition to totalitarianism and Communism. A liberal on domestic issues who was also an ardent hawk on foreign affairs, Henry Jackson was a bulwark in the fight for democracy and freedom in the 20th century.”
Wikipedia describes the HJS as follows;-
“The Henry Jackson Society is a trans-Atlantic foreign policy and national security think tank, based in the United Kingdom. While describing itself as non-partisan, its outlook has been described variously as right-wing, neoliberal, and neoconservative”
Eyes wide open – the HJS is no friend of China. Rather the contrary. Consistent with its attachment to right-wing conservative thinking, the HJS views itself as the last bulwark against the advance of Chinese Communism. Its goal is always to talk up the threat from China and to talk down its progress and achievements. It is a modern variant of the U.S. 1950’s Cold War approach of John Foster Dulles and J Edgar Hoover best summarised with the phrase “Reds Under the Beds”. The HJS is firmly in anti-China
Their portrayal of China is unrestrainedly negative. Its panel “will examine the scale, scope and methods of Chinese influence operations in the UK…will focus on Chinese technology, organised crime networks, espionage cases currently under investigation, and significant historical examples of Chinese intelligence activity”. With the HJS you are not being treated to balanced objective assessment of China – good and bad. It is a diet of one-way warnings of the “threats” emanating from China.
It will not mention that the Western foreign exchange travel company – Travelex – have planned for the number of Chinese tourists to travel to holiday destinations will reach 200 million on 2030 – and what does that figure say about rising Chinese prosperity, about their citizens freedom to holiday outside China. They leave and they return – no reports of any mass asylum claims by Chinese “escaping to Thailand, Japan or the Philippines.”
Similarly, the HJS will not mention the surge in railway construction and – as Ben Fogle highlighted in his recent three part Channel 5 TV series on travel in China – the attractions of relaxed and rapid railway travel the length and breadth of China coupled with an ease of interaction between UK media interests and China’s enquiring onlookers.
Within the UK there are, broadly, two main groups of people who follow China; the first is Inquiring, inquisitive and willing to give China the benefit of the doubt. This group see much to praise and recommend in China. They have questions about City tv cameras and the Tiananmin Deaths of 1989 but are impressed with the relaxed personal and collective freedom that pervades the streets and lanes of the cities and countryside
The second group is determined to portray China in the worst possible light – hence the focus on ”organised crime networks, espionage cases currently under investigation, and significant historical examples of Chinese intelligence activity” – the topics are crime, spies, and intelligence. The HJS is on a mission – it is to discredit China. China must be done down – after all it is a Communist country and must be dictatorial, repressive, devious and dishonest. Where the HJS is concerned – eyes must be wide open. The organisation has an agenda – Be Negative About China
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#2 NORTH KOREA’S BOUNCE-BACK
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
“In a stunning reversal of fortune, North Korea today is ascendant in ways not even the most imaginative analyst could have predicted. Kim, whose grip on power has never been stronger, has transformed himself from a global pariah into a global power player in record time.
This metamorphosis is the product of both circumstance and skill. The dawn of a new era of great-power competition has been an unwelcome development for many small countries and middle powers, but North Korea has fared better than most by leveraging its nuclear arsenal to avoid getting trampled by bigger players. Kim has also proved uniquely adept at exploiting the opportunities and navigating the currents of this new geopolitics. In approaching relations with China and Russia, he has taken surprising risks, such as fighting a war in Europe and escalating nuclear weapons development, that have paid off.
As a result, his ability to shape regional dynamics is now greater than ever. In the past, Washington has been able to work with Beijing and Moscow, albeit to a limited extent, to restrain North Korea and prevent a military confrontation. But today, the North Korea challenge is both more formidable and more durable. The confluence of U.S.-Chinese tension, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and U.S. allies’ growing distrust of Washington’s intentions and commitment has made for an unpredictable and volatile global situation. North Korea is thus a preview of the obstacles the United States will face as this new order takes shape.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
So often derided and mocked for its authoritarian character, North Korea has confounded its critics by displaying resilience and strength in the face of U.S. led isolation. It is not a question of approving or disapproving of the nature of the Kim regime in Pyongyang. The prevailing Western narrative dismissed North Korea as an isolated pariah state firmly on the road to oblivion. Trump visited the country in his first term but his talks were fruitless and the widespread assumption was that – left to its own devices and its massive over-spend on defence – the country would implode.Top of Form
Wishful thinking can never take the place of hard-headed analysis. Too often the West is caught out by mistakenly transferring Preferences into Facts. North Korea is a fact of life. It has ballistic missiles and It is a totalitarian state but It has to be taken seriously – regardless of whether the country is on your Loathe List or your Love List. It is not a question of What You Prefer but What Works. The country is not going away. As Henry Kissinger rightly observed – Speak to your Enemies First and your Friends Second. It is a great shame for many American families that he realised this truth after his saturation bombing of North Vietnam brought – not the defeat of the North but its victory.
A new world order is taking shape. The mindset needs to adjust. See the changes and anticipate what it means for 2076. China is looking beyond the return to the fold of Taiwan and the attainment of its goal of converting China into a prosperous economy by its 100th anniversary in 2049. By the same token in what state will the U.S. find itself as it celebrates in 2076 the 300th anniversary of its founding? What will be Trump’s legacy? Peace and stability or discord and disruption?
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#3 U.S. BUSINESSES IN CHINA – MIXED FEELINGS
NIKKEI ASIA
American businesses in China have grown more worried about the country’s economic headwinds than bilateral tensions, even as they continue to bet on the market’s vast opportunities, according to an annual study.
A white paper released on Thursday by the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham) shows 64% of survey respondents were concerned about slowing economic growth, displacing strained U.S.-China relations (58%) as their top challenge.
Other concerns include competitive pressures from local companies (31%), industrial overcapacity (30%) and inconsistent regulatory interpretation and enforcement (26%).
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
If you are negative about China you will talk up “the economic headwinds.” If you are positive about China you will talk up “the market’s vast opportunities”
At the end of the day when business weighs everything in the balance – they key is long term prospects. Am I investing in an economy which will deliver a good return over a long period of time? If there is no long term then there is no future. It is that simple. There are always squalls. It is in the nature of the topic and they are to be expected. Today it is the Iran War, tomorrow it may be Cuba or Greenland. The present is always with us but it is the future that provides the perspective
Despite ongoing U.S.-China tensions, 79% of American businesses reported a positive or neutral outlook for US-China trade 2026, up 30% from last year, reflecting what the report describes as the stabilizing effect of bilateral engagement. This includes the meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea last October which marked a change in the balance of power as between the two countries.
Neither country dominates the other but October 2025 is increasingly seen as a significant date in China-U.S. relations. China stood up. It rocked U.S. self-confidence and the world is a different place. Not one where China dominates but one where China is taken seriously.
It is difficult to over-emphasise the change in the balance of power. Rare earths has given China considerable leverage and its goal will be to maintain that leverage despite determined U.S. efforts to bring about a long term change – hence the U.S. minerals deal with Ukraine and its interest in the substantial mineral deposits in Greenland.
Big dates in U.S./China relations include the Communist Manifesto of 1848, the Russian Revolution of 1917 and the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. But History will come to regard 2025 as the year when the balance swung in favour of China.
GRAHAM PERRY
