CHINA AND THE FOREIGN MEDIA – CHINA POST #621

GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON

08 MAY 2026. CHINA POST #621

CHINA AND THE FOREIGN MEDIA

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THE U.S. AND CHINA – IS WAR INEVITABLE?

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

“In the early 1910s, British Foreign Secretary Edward Grey was surveying the world from his office in Whitehall. He saw many minor wars, but nothing that would pit the great powers at the time against one another. Even “in the early months of 1914 the international sky seemed clearer than it had been,” he later wrote in his memoirs.

World War I, of course, broke out just months later, and went on to kill 40 million people. Almost nobody saw it coming, but many, including Lord Grey, concluded afterward that it happened because the great powers did not manage to solve the many smaller conflicts that together fuelled the conflagration of 1914.

The world today looks disconcertingly like the one of the early twentieth century, and not only because it is beset by regional wars, such as the ones in Iran and Ukraine. Today’s world is also one of many great powers, including China, Russia, and the United States, all of which jealously guard their positions. It is filled with nationalism, terrorism, economic and technological competition, and failing globalization—just like back then. Its leaders communicate, but without much understanding of one another. And there is a sense that they will run out of time to settle their differences, as their predecessors did a hundred years ago.

“I foresee that very soon I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure brought upon me, and be forced to take extreme measures which will lead to war,”

Russian Tsar Nicholas II wrote to his cousin Kaiser Wilhelm II as World War I got underway.  Déjà Vu?.

GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-

Undeniable core truths;-

1. The U.S.-China relationship is the #1 key international relationship. The former is the dominant power and the latter is the rising power. According to the Thucydides Trap, war – if not inevitable – is most likely between the two powers.

Question;- Can War be Avoided?

Answer;- Yes, but….

2. It requires crisis management of the highest order. There has to be sanity and calm decision-making at times of intense crisis. Trump fails the test. His style of leadership under pressure is dramatic, attention grabbing, even on occasions hysterical – witness how he often ends a message with emphasis underlined by adding upper case letters. By comparison, China remains calm and in control.  

3. But Mutual Assured Destruction does concentrate the mind of leaders at a time of unyielding confrontation. One leader, if not both, will surely blink – won’t they? President Xi is dull, plodding and predictable – so it seems – but has the White House really understood the mindset of its #1 opponent? The U.S. track record is poor. It failed to see the significance of Deng’s 1979 economic reforms; it wrongly predicted in 2002 that western democratic norms would follow if China were admitted to the WTO; and the U.S. was wildly out of touch in suggesting that prosperity in China would be accompanied by the downgrading and eventual dissolution of the Communist Party of China.

The U.S. has never made good the deficit it created for itself by forbidding any U.S. citizen from visiting China between 1949 and 1972. The U.S. lacks in-depth understanding of the mind-set of its Chinese opponent – a charge that cannot be levelled at China which has made all aspects of U.S. society a subject of intense and persistent study by Chinese think-tanks in every Province of China. China knows its opponent. The U.S. doesn’t. And the world is the loser.

4. And Trump does not inspire confidence that behind the gun-toting Cowboy image there is a cool rational mind. The wild hullaballoo and middle of the night messaging summons the explosive image of Six-Shooting Sheriff John Wayne – not the thoughtful repose of the late intelligent and much preferred Adlai Stevenson.

5. The U.S. is hurting. Previously it was the #1 unchallenged superpower but Today is not Yesterday. China now far exceeds the United States if total manufacturing output is the measure – and the gap is widening. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the world became unipolar. Today the world is becoming multi-polar. The U.S is on the back foot. The Nation’s Ego has taken a Big Hit.

6. At least five million manufacturing jobs have disappeared in the U.S. since 2002; the bottom 50% of U/S. wage earners have not experienced an income rise in the last thirty years; there is a lack of access to proper health insurance, to paid sick leave, and to retirement plans. It is reported that in the U.S. the top 5% owns around 66% of the country’s wealth, and the 66% figure is rising. Beyond Trump supporters, gloom and dismay prevail In the United States today – not hope and optimism,

7. Today, China produces 80% of the world’s solar panels; 60% of the world’s wind turbines; 75%  of the world’s batteries and 70% of all electric vehicles. And then there is Rare Earths – China mines approx. 70% of world produce and 90% of processed rare earths. The encounter in Seoul in October 2025 between Trump and Xi was a major geo-political turning point, China now has significant leverage in the relationship with the U.S. due to Rare Earths. Additionally, China has Belt and Road Initiative economic relations with more than 150 countries.

8. China’s global supply and geographical presence is a significant fact, But notwithstanding its growing world presence, China’s eyes are wide open. It knows that it faces its own challenges. Annual economic growth is down from double digit to 5%. Its property sector has created a trail of financial losses to its citizens as well as to its Provinces. Unemployment among its 16-21 age group hovers around 15%. That said the international Holiday company – Travelex – has predicted that in 2030 200 million Chinese citizens will take family holidays at popular overseas tourist resorts – so efforts to write off China’s progress are premature.

9. There are also two additional challenges to the Chinese economy that are specific to the country. One is China’s exceptional demographic profile. The one-child policy – that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) enforced for more than a generation – has reversed unwelcome population growth but at a price: China is growing old. Is that by design or by default? Time will tell but by 2050 the country will have lost at least 200 million people, if not more, and more than 40 percent of those who remain will be over 60. Some suggest that China’s demographics are a ticking economic time bomb for the country but others suspect China is planning for the future.

10. Whilst China’s income levels continue to rise they do so at differing rates due to widening wage differentials which raises social tensions and questions the political goals of the Marxist socialist society. The #1 absolute priority remains the fight against corruption especially in high places. Xi is aware that the people must be constantly reassured that the Party leaders are not feathering their own nests. Too often Western commentators have dismissed campaigns against corruption as a mere political campaign by Xi to remove rivals to power. But China knows that the protests in Tiananmin Square of 1989 were triggered by a growing perception especially among students and young people that Deng’s economic reforms merely fired the opening shots of a “Make Me Rich” society from which they were excluded.. There was a Go-For-Growth emphasis but that was not intended to allow self-aggrandisement to take control. Xi’s repeated anti-corruption campaigns have as their purpose their prevention of deceit and dishonesty from becoming the New Normal. Instability beckons if the Party becomes the New Class which Xi is keen to prevent.

11. The other major challenge – which China is winning – is control of the Billionaires. The USSR was undone by the Oligarchs – and lost. Xi needs his Billionaires – they have a significant role in China’s overall growth plans – and he encourages them for the contribution they make to economic prosperity But Xi is in control. The Party, not the Billionaires, are in power  – ask Jack Ma, Alibaba’s CEO ,who was brought down a significant peg when he challenged the authority of China’s Regulators. China’s Billionaires know there are boundaries. Xi’s China is not Gorbachev’s USSR.

12. China is on the front foot and with only one military base outside China – the U.S. has more than 800 bases spread across the world. It gives the U.S. muscle and weapons but it comes at a cost. The U.S. is reported to be militarily stretched by its current war against Iran. Further, countries which host U.S, military bases are in the firing line should hostilities between the U.S. and China break out, and local governments will be under pressure to choose between affording the U.S. continued bases on the one hand or ordering their urgent dismantling on the other. The countries of S-E Asia will face much increased pressure if they allow Trump to embroil them in military action against China. The countries want more business with China and not more U.S. military bases in their neighbourhood.

13. China’s approach to politics – international and domestic – is dominated by Hegelian dialectics and Marxist materialism. Its analysis of world affairs and internal politics is infused with the belief that quantitative change leads to qualitative change and that progress is spiral and not circular. Contrary to Western liberal political thought, China holds to the view that there is an alternative to the capitalist model of development and that a process initiated by the Communist Manifesto of 1848 is in full flow. History is ever transient and a further one hundred years is needed to reconstruct a new world order. In that important sense 2026 is just a moment in time and much needs to be done in China to complete the fundamental transition into becoming a world power.

14. War is not welcomed as a stepping stone along the journey. China will strive for Peace fully aware that military hostilities bring massive loss of life and fundamental rupture to the advance of the human condition. But tension between the U.S. and China is ever-present with both sides having their respective plans for peace and their respective plans for war should hostilities occur. There is no guarantee of peace.

15. Wars rarely commence because of accident. There is a path to conflict and much depends on the quality of leadership displayed by the leading combatants. People will make their own judgment about President Trump and President Xi but the scales of concern and anxiety focus more on Trump than Xi. China’s position is clear. They will maintain a detailed ongoing analysis of Trump’s mindset and emotional composure and of the team that surrounds him but they will focus their primary attention on the policies that his Administration pursue. Recent events in Ukraine, Iran and Gaza will be analysed and reviewed and China’s goal will be to resort to military action only when all negotiation options have been exhausted. It is estimated that China lost 14 million people during the World War II against Japan and that experience is not a distant historical  episode but a subject of current tensions – especially since the new Japanese Premier made an early and significant statement of support for Taiwan independence.

16. Tension is an ever-present in politics – national and international. And there is a permanent interplay between people, personalities and politics. That will never change and it is a matter for country’s leaders to constantly engage in ongoing review of all three issues people as events develop. China’s preference will be for stability over instability, for peace over action and for jaw-jaw over war-war.

17. People ask – what is China’s priority? It is not the defeat of Trump. The U.S. is a long-term rival but China’s actions are not focused on the bringing down of the U.S. – that is a matter for the people of the U.S. not for the people of China. The inner dynamics of U.S. society will settle the long-term future of the U.S. Certainly the momentum of China’s coming of age and its appearance on the world stage as a major player (eg – Rare Earths) will impact upon the U.S. and undermine its long-term growth and political confidence but China’s goal is not the downfall of Trump.

18. It is, also, not a takeover of Taiwan (the idea of a major military intervention by Beijing is quite fanciful – widely canvassed though it is by Western opinion-makers). That said China is quite clear – “This is our problem – not yours. Stay Out!”.

19. China will not accept any foreign role in Taiwan in what is an internal China historical problem. The U.S. acknowledged in the 1972 Shanghai Communique that Taiwan was part of China. Observers of developments should focus on the growing exchanges between Beijing and the various political parties in Taiwan. China hopes for a seamless reintegration of Taiwan within the People’s Republic of China and along the way China, mindful of its recent experiences in Hong Kong, will go out of its way to accommodate the uniqueness of the Taiwan experience within the structure of the PRC.

20. China provides the answer to the question – What Are Its Priorities? – in every statement of policy coming out of Beijing. It consists of just two words – Prosperity + Stability – and the focus is unchanged since the removal of the Gang of Four in October 1976. China’s policy today is the same as the policy laid down by Deng Hsiaoping on his return to power in 1977. Xi is the leader today and the focus will always be on the individual who is General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and Chaiman of its Military Commission. But the policy will always be associated with Deng who is increasingly seen as the individual who saved China from the continuation of the chaos and division which characterised China in the years 1966-1976. (Mao Saved the Country, Deng Saved the Economy, Xi Saved the Party)

21. Most observers overlook the significance of the negative lessons of the Cultural Revolution because they do not understand the politics of China. Today more than ever, the collective mindset of China is only grasped if people understand the significance of the defeat of the Gang of Four. Most people in the West have sidelined the developments of 1976 at their cost. The China of Today is only understood if the China of Yesterday is understood. The two are inseparable. China’s priority is to avoid any return to the chaos, destruction and poverty of the years 1966-76 – hence Stability and Prosperity remain China’s twin priorities.

22. “Stability” is the  political and economic landscape that highlights consistency, continuity and conformity.   “Prosperity” is progress that embraces, advance, improvement and achievement. But the two words have a greater significance in China Today because of China Yesterday

23. “Stability” is a comprehensive rejection of the instability that is the dominating mind set of the Cultural Revolution. The words that come to mind when the Cultural Revolution is discussed are “the Little Red Book”, “Dare to Rebel”, “Bombard the Headquarters of the Capitalist-Roaders”, “Political Power Grows out of the Barrel of s Gun”. The mindset of the Cultural Revolution was turbulence, strife, disruption, conflict, challenge, and confrontation. Its goal was the imposition of an extreme Left Wing diet of political purity that stirred class antagonisms, class hate, destruction and death. China was on the brink of collapse. The current crop of leaders and the rising crop are quite familiar with the damage that the Cultural Revolution brought to China and they are resolved not to repeat the experience.

24. “Stability” does not mean servility, acquiescence, or timidity. It does not mean that the people must obey and surrender their right to initiative. The population are not required to be nodding Yes Men and Women. That approach does not achieve DeepSeek, or 40,000 miles of railway track or China’s world dominance in the number of STEM PhD’s (Science, Technology, Electronics and Mathematics). Stability in China today means progress, economic advance and national achievement which requires across the board individual ambition. It involves success and development. It also involves failure and setbacks which are a reason for review and reflection and a springboard for ambition and achievement. Stability means being on the Front-Foot with Eyes Wide Open not Playing Safe by Lowering Expectations.

25. Prosperity is the essential partner to Stability. If the state is stable the People will prosper and prosperity promotes wealth, health, and fulfilment – but is that for all, or just for some? Is China pursuing an egalitarian policy of equality for all or is it creating layers of wealth that have the appearance of the rich and the poor dichotomy that is at the heart of capitalist society?

26. China’s solution is Common Prosperity – a policy to reduce wealth inequality and promote social equity. Rather than equal wealth (egalitarianism), it focuses on income distribution, expanding middle-income groups, and creating “substantial progress” in prosperity by 2035. This strategy includes wealth redistribution, enhancing social services, strengthening regulations on private companies, and promoting rural revitalization. China’s policy is not Winners and Losers but Big Winners and Lesser Winners. The goal is to bring improvement for all with the recognition that some will benefit more than others. China has turned its back on a policy of equality, of egalitarianism, of equal shares. Some will enjoy considerable wealth but none will suffer poverty.

27. Does this mean that China becomes a classless society or a class ridden society? For the next 100 years China will be a society where power will be with the Party in pursuit of their goal of creating a society in which there will be differential grades of prosperity coupled with a commitment to eliminate poverty at one end of society and control the accumulation of wealth at the other end of society. China will be required to address sensitive political issues about the inheritance of wealth and the long-term ownership of property.

28. China is further down the path of creating a new society than any other country has ever reached. It goes forward without the benefit of a blueprint of Common Prosperity. For the present the focus is on increasing wealth, improving the quality of life and avoiding hardship that comes from personal failure, bad health and the intervention of disease, plague and environmental damage. The primary goal of the Party is to maintain stability and promote prosperity.

29. The term “maintaining stability” has two meanings – internal and external. Chinese society needs to be alert, active even experimental and always in pursuit of increasing prosperity. Externally China prepares its military – but not for conquest or overseas bases or local wars. China shares its boundaries with 14 countries and tensions exists with just three – Japan, the Philippines and India. The South China Sea has triggered competing claims about the exact locations of ocean boundaries but no Chinese soldier, sailor or pilot occupies any non-Chinese territory. China’s one international base services the considerable needs of China’s large international maritime fleet. China does maintain an increasingly modern army, navy and air-force but for the sole purpose of discouraging the U.S. from mounting any military campaign against China and to defend the essential movement of goods in and out of China’s East coast ports. China knows it is vulnerable and wants to remind would-be aggressors of the price they would pay if they attempt to interfere with China trade in international waters. China is always on the alert. It remains ever vigilant. It has to – its #1 world opponent maintains more than 800 military bases and China has to take seriously the possibility of active conflict. It does not mean that China seeks control of any land outside China – it doesn’t.

30. Bringing these matters together, China’s clear and repeatedly stated preference is peace not war. Its objective remains stability and prosperity but it knows that its Socialist presence – its existence – is a challenge to the U.S. that wants to make the world free from Marxism. Back to the main question – is War Inevitable between the U.S. and China? No is the simple un-ambiguous answer. War is Possible but War is not Inevitable. The rise of China and the decline of the U.S. does not make War essential. China has to continue to address its growing priorities and the U.S. has to continue to address its diminishing strengths but rivalry, competition and political egoism does not make War a Must. Peace, progress and development is a much more likely outcome – with one proviso and it is this; the leaders of the U.S. and China have to possess a strong preference for problem-solving not problem-creating.

31. Take a glance back to the Spring and Summer of 1914 and take steps back from the brink. The glaringly obvious truth is that the U.S. and China benefit from working together.  The hope must be that within Washington and Beijing there are leaders alert to the needs and requirements of their opponents as much as they are alert to the needs and requirements of their own people. There are always solutions if the mindset of both sides remains practical and positive –  more trade, fewer restrictions, open financial markets, increased technological exchanges, enlarged people-to-people relationships, expanded give-and-take. Jaw-Jaw is always preferable to War-War.

GRAHAM PERRY

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THE EMPHASIS IS ALWAYS ON THE PRESENT AS CHANGE BRINGS NEW CHALLENGES BUT THIS GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON COLUMN REMAINS INTRIGUED BY THE THOUGHT AND PLANNING OF THE NEW CHINA IN 1949 INTO ITS LONG TERM FUTURE AND ESPECIALLY ITS URGENT NEED FOR NEW FRIENDS.

THE NEW CHINA OF 1949 HAD FEW FRIENDS AS ITS COMMUNIST LEADERS SET ABOUT THE CONSTRUCTION OF A NEW SOCIALIST SOCIETY. IT HAD TO BUILD – INTERNALLY A NEW SOCIETY AND EXTERNALLY NEW RELATIONSHIPS. LEAVING ASIDE FAMILY LOYALTY STRONG THOUGH IT IS, IT REMAINS A TOPIC OF REMARKABLE INTEREST THAT AN UNEDUCATED TEXTILE ENTREPRENEUR, JACK PERRY, WAS SELECTED IN 1951 AS THE PRIME CONTACT FOR THE NEW CHINA’S RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM.

HOW DID THE NEW PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA COME TO JACK PERRY? YES, IT IS A PERSONAL STORY BUT THAT IS NOT THE POINT. IT IS THE GEO-POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF A DECISION BY DR JI CHAODING IN 1951 TO RECOMMEND TO PREMIER ZHOU ENLAI THAT CHINA ENCOURAGE JACK PERRY TO BE THE PRINCIPAL CHANNEL OF NEW TRADE AND BUSINESS CONTACT WITH THE EMERGING PRC. THE NARRATIVE IN ONE SENSE IS A LABOUR OF LOVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IT HIGHLIGHTS THE REMARKABLE RISE OF CHINA FROM THE SICK MAN OF ASIA IN 1949 TO THE LEADING ECONOMIC WORLD POWER IN 2026.

GRAHAM PERRY