CHINA AND THE FOREIGN MEDIA – CHINA POST #619

GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON

13 APRIL 2026. CHINA POST #619

CHINA AND THE FOREIGN MEDIA

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#1  XI + CHINA – v  TRUMP + U.S.

      CHINA HAS NO ILLUSIONS

#2  XI + CHINA – v  TRUMP + U.S.

       TO MEET AND TALK?

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#1    XI +CHINA – v  US + TRUMP

        CHINA HAS NO ILLUSIONS

        FOREIGN AFFAIRS

“Chinese President Xi Jinping is getting the United States he always wanted. Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, Washington has grown less confident in its global purpose, less committed to the rules-based order it once upheld, and more willing to wield power in ways that unsettle markets, institutions, and allies. Washington’s global authority and credibility are wearing away.

In one sense, this is good news for Beijing. A weaker, less moralistic Washington is harder for others to rally around. It offers a less compelling model. It has become less capable of organizing coalitions and more likely to drive away the very partners it needs to balance China. For decades, Chinese leaders have wanted a United States strong enough to keep the global economy afloat and prevent outright systemic collapse but no longer capable of shaping the international order in ways that constrain China’s rise. Xi is now closer to that outcome than any emperor or party leader of the past two centuries.

Yet this is not an unambiguous victory for China. Xi does not want simply a diminished United States. He wants one that still helps to preserve a stable world order. That distinction is easy to miss in Washington, where analysts often assume that geopolitical competition works like a running scoreboard: if the United States loses, China must win, and vice versa. But Beijing does not interpret every U.S. setback as a Chinese gain, and Chinese leaders do not assume that every geopolitical opening must be exploited.

More often, they wait, watch, and calculate their next move. They ask not simply whether the United States has been weakened but whether the surrounding environment has become more stable or more chaotic. Beijing cares whether trade continues to flow, whether energy arrives on time, and whether global crises remain bounded rather than cascade. For China, stability is not a soft preference. It is the precondition for continued national strengthening.”

GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-

See the whole picture. Embrace the Macro and the Micro. Focus on the journey. Where did it start? Where will it end?

So often commentaries on China focus just on today. What is the current news headline? And this leads to mistakes – we focus on the present at the expense of a balanced assessment of the past and an informed prediction about  the future. The analysis is flawed because the attention is limited to today – that is understandable, up to a point, because we live in the today but the true geo-political significance requires us to view the present as part of the evolving story. China does – always.

Two Points;-

First, it is a little known and under-appreciated fact that China’s Politburo will often commence a meeting with a Study Session – a paper will be produced that will be a throwback to a political moment that has relevance to the current priority – it could be the late 1920’s confrontation between China’s Communist Party and the KMT with a comment on the approaching KMT visit to Beijing; it could be an analysis on China-Japan relations with a throwback to the Rape of Nanjing of 1937; it could even be current China-U.S. relations in the context of Mao Tsetung’s 1947 writings on U.S. Imperialism being a Paper Tiger. For China, perspective is everything. They always have a view based on a close analysis of the present within the context of the past.

Second, “A more volatile, less restrained United States is no comfort to Chinese elites, who are sensitive to the risks posed by a hegemon that is no longer confident in its own order yet still possesses unmatched destructive capacity.” In one sense the U.S. is weaker, more vulnerable and possessed of doubts and anxieties. But this weakness makes the U.S. more of a threat. All the more so because of the demoniac personality of Trump. Now more than ever China is on its guard. It has no illusions. Trump is like a Heavyweight boxer who, entering the final rounds losing on points, is looking for a knock-out blow. He is a big danger. China will continue to box clever with a strategy that keeps the country strong and focused as it moves nimbly to prevent Trump for upsetting the applecart.

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#2    XI +CHINA – v  US + TRUMP

        PART TWO

        MAO TSETUNG AND PAPER TIGERS

Let’s start at the beginning.

QUESTION – How does China view the U.S?

ANSWER – See the whole story and not just the parts of the story. China and the U.S. today are part of an evolving past. Mao’s writings have relevance here. In a famous 1947 “Talk with the American Correspondent Anna Louise Strong Mao said;-

“Just as there is not a single thing in the world without a dual nature “this is the law of the unity of opposites) so imperialism and all reactionaries have a dual nature. They are real tigers and paper tigers at the same time.

In past history, before they won state power and for some time afterwards, the slave owning class, the feudal landlord class and the bourgeoisie were vigorous, revolutionary and progressive. They were real tigers.

But with the lapse of time they became their opposites – the slave class, the peasant class and the proletariat – grew in strength step by step, struggled against them more and more fiercely, these ruling classes changed step by step into the reverse, changed into reactionaries, changed into backward people, changed into paper tigers…

Hence Imperialism and all reactionaries, looked at in essence, from a long-term point of view must be seen for what they are – paper tigers. On this we should build our strategic thinking. On the other hand they are also living tigers, iron tigers, real tigers which can devour people. On this we should build our tactical thinking.”

PAPER TIGERS AND IRON TIGERS

In viewing Trump and the U.S. Xi and China will see both aspects of the U.S. today – a paper tiger and an iron tiger. China sees the perspective, and the historical trend. Nixon’s 1972 visit was of immense significance. The U.S. had realised that China was a coming power and could not be disregarded. Today as China is about to become the largest economic power in the world, the U.S. needs to maintain its exchanges with China. The U.S. competes with China. It also has to co-operate with China – hence the constant tensions in the relationship. The two sides whilst despising each other strategically recognise that the need for constant tactical exchanges. So how does China view the upcoming Trump visit?

WORLD LEADERS VISIT CHINA

First, the world has accorded China much greater significance. Trump will follow in the wake of visits to China by Australia’s Alabanese, India’s Modi, France’s Macron, South Korea’s Lee, Canada’s Carney, Germany’s Merz and the UK’s Starmer. Trump’s visit underlines the growing importance of China in world affairs. Xi Jinping understands the trend of history that these visits represent

SEOUL 2025 – THE BIG TURNING POINT

Second, Seoul in October 2025 was a big moment in time. The U.S. met its match. China stood up to Trump and his policy on tariffs and forced him on to the back foot. Rare Earths are today writ large in world affairs. The balance of power has changed – irreversibly underlined by the significant fact that during this period of tariff wars China’s exports have reached record levels.

IS CHINA COMPLACENT? – NO!

Third, China takes the U.S. very seriously. There is no possibility that Xi Jinping and the Communist Party will underestimate the challenge that the U.S. presents. China’s head will not be turned by its own achievements. Mao’s words ring as true today as they did in 1947 but China understands the journey that the U.S is on and respects the U.S. as a serious and long-term opponent. There will be periods of tension mixed with periods of constructive encounter  – co-operation and confrontation – for at least the next fifty years. So, China knows that it has to meet and exchange views with the U.S. and with every encounter the Party will reflect on the history of China/U.S. relations and plan accordingly. Both sides will want to avoid an outbreak of hostilities due to error or misunderstanding so ground rules will exist and be observed but War can never be ruled out – never.

THE FOCUS IN CHINA POST 617 ON JACK PERRY’S POLITICS RE THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN AND RE THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TRIGGERED QUESTIONS FROM READERS. THESE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN FOLLOWING ISSUES OF GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON.

GRAHAM PERRY