GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON #188
The 25-year strategic partnership signed last month by China + Iran is another moment in time. Iran is oil-rich + China is the world’s biggest oil importer. Iran is struggling with its relations with the US + China is on the path to ascendancy over the US. Iran is vulnerable to attack by Israel + China/Israel relations have developed in recent years – the Israeli government has refused to join the criticism of China for its alleged mistreatment of the Uighurs.
What does this mean for world affairs? China is vulnerable to US military intervention knowing that China relies on strategic waterways in the Gulf + South-East Asia. At the same time, the US hesitates to provoke China over Iran + sea routes when issues are so alive in the S China Sea.
The geo-political world is changing. The overarching norms are called into question. The US looks with anxiety at China’s growing confidence + forays in into international affairs. It reminds some of Mao Tsetung’s observation in 1956 that change is permanent + stability is temporary. Many may not see it quite yet but momentous changes are now underway.