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Monday, May 16, 2022

“WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR CHINA TO DENOUNCE RUSSIA RE UKRAINE”. A READER ASKS #383.

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Graham Perry
Experienced Arbitration Lawyer | China & Chinese Business Affairs | Public Speaker/Lecturer.

GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON

The assumption in the above question is that there must come a time when China will wash its hands of Russia; that China will become embarrassed + angered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine + publicly denounce China. This will not happen for two key reasons;-

The First Reason

China will focus on the failure of the US/EU to engage in negotiations with Putin. This is back to my “failed leadership” argument. There was a deal to be done that would have avoided the loss of life, human misery + sheer physical destruction that we witness nightly on our television screens. The US should have proposed a guarantee that Nato would not enlarge to include Ukraine in return for a withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas region, + an assurance of Ukrainian sovereignty.

Three Points;

First, the Cuban crisis of 1962 was solved by such a deal. See historian Martin Sherwin’s book Gambling with Armageddon. The crisis was resolved by a negotiated compromise. The USSR agreed to remove its missiles from Cuba + the US agreed to remove its missiles from Turkey.

Second, Washington intentionally misrepresents Putin’s alleged goal – ‘the recreation of the Russian empire’. This is wrong. Russia has always feared invasions from the West, whether by Napoleon, Hitler or latterly Nato. The famous US diplomat George Kennan argued that Nato’s enlargement to the East after the demise of the USSR was unnecessary, reckless + provocative.

Third, Pledging no Nato enlargement is not appeasement. No Ukrainian territory is ceded + No Ukrainian sovereignty is undermined. The famous US diplomat George Kennan argued that Nato’s enlargement to the East after the demise of the USSR was unnecessary, reckless and provocative.

The Second Reason

The significant geopolitical change in world affairs – is much under-appreciated by the West. The world is multi-polar and the main focus is the Far East. The old certainties of the post-WW2 Cold War are no more. The World has moved on. China and Russia share a common goal – resistance to US hegemony.

#384 9 MAY 2022 BRI AND ALLEGED DEBT DIPLOMACY

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