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Thursday, December 8, 2022

A QUESTION FROM A READER #381

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Mr Graham Perry
Graham Perry
Experienced Arbitration Lawyer | China & Chinese Business Affairs | Public Speaker/Lecturer.

GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON

“What do you think it would take for USA and China to develop a mutually beneficial trade agreement that in the long run would help both countries?”
The answer in a phrase is two words Wise Leadership. Let me explain.

The First World War was quite avoidable but diplomats failed. The Russian/Ukraine War was quite avoidable but Western diplomats failed to recommend and enforce a policy of neutrality on the part of Ukraine.

Wars can be avoided. Leadership can succeed. Negotiations can take place and agreements can be reached but Ukraine, stoked by fire from  Washington, London and NATO, decided it was better to keep prodding at Russia’s greatest anxiety – encirclement by NATO – even if that meant the outbreak of hostilities. There is worse to come from this war. Leadership failed.

Back to US and China. The US has been use to being #1 Top Dog. China’s remorseless economic progress will replace the US as the #1 Economic Power in the World. This is a big blow to US prestige. They are struggling to come to terms with relegation to #2 and, by the mid 2030’s, to #3 as India rises to #2.

There are two lines of thought in Washington – eliminate China or accommodate China. Eliminating China means WW3 and there are prominent military figures who press the US to go to war with China. The military/industrial complex does exist.  The alternative is accommodating China and developing a mutually beneficial trade agreement which in the long run would help both countries.

The Chinese leadership is mature, and alert to the dangers in the present situation. They want jaw-jaw, not war-war. The Biden leadership, however, is split – some want peace and some want war as the only way to hold onto the US #1 economic position. Can a mutually beneficial trade agreement be reached? Not by Biden or Trump so not for the next 8 years. My view? – we will go to the brink. War beckons.

NEXT POST 5 MAY 2022; WOULD CHINA DENOUNCE RUSSIA RE UKRAINE?

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