GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
IN THIS ISSUE THE FOCUS IS ON TWO INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES HELD LAST WEEK IN WASHINGTON, USA, AND IN KAZAN, TATARSTAN, RUSSIA.
THEY PROVIDE AN UP-TO-DATE COMMENT ON THE PRESENT BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WORLD TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A COMMENT ON THE ASSESSMENT OF MAO TSETUNG FOLLOWING THE FAILURE OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION IN 1976.
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IRWIN STETZER WRITES IN THE UK SUNDAY TIMES ON 27 OCTOBER 2024
“It’s come to this, a competition of conferences. In Washington, the capital of the world’s largest nation, representatives of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund were in a celebratory mood last week. It is 80 years since 730 delegates from 66 nations gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, and succeeded in establishing a world financial order that crowned the US Dollar king of the currencies…
Simultaneously, some 5,000 miles to the East in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, a group of countries were addressing the same issues being discussed in Washington but rather than celebrating the reign of King Dollar they were figuring out how best to dethrone it. Their host was Vladimir Putin, a man with a powerful incentive to consign the dollar to the scrapheap of history to use a phrase with which he is undoubtedly familiar…
The 53 nations that met at the summit in Kazan included the original members of the bloc known as BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and inductees eager to establish an alternative trading system.
There are reasons for Dollar Dominance. The US economy is large, dynamic and home to the rule of law and a host of investor protections. Dollars are easily convertible into foreign currencies. Foreign investors can bring home the profits from their investments. The dollar is a “store of value” likely to retain its purchasing power.
Joyce Chang of JP Morgan believes that new global payment systems are evolving rapidly and facilitating cross-border transactions without the involvement of US banks…this could undermine the dominance of the dollar. A former White House economist – Joe Sullivan – says there is sufficient trade within BRICS to make it possible for a BRICS issued currency “to dislodge the US Dollar as the reserve currency of BRICS members”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Irwin Stetzer is right to be concerned but he is ahead of the game. The US dollar will not be dislodged any time soon. It is on the agenda but it requires BRICS to establish a number of years of economic stability and evidence of increasing co-operation between BRICS countries. That is likely to happen and in due course a challenge to the dominance of the dollar will be mounted.
But this is a political struggle first and foremost. The world is changing. The US is faltering. The Global South is growing and political tussles will increase in number as the newly organized BRICS countries assert themselves with increasing vigour in the world economy. At the summit from Tuesday to Thursday of last week, the bloc also welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates as members for the first time. Saudi Arabia has yet to officially join, but is closely involved with the group, while a host of other countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Myanmar countries have formally submitted, or are considering, applications for membership.
Distance lends a perspective and stepping back from the micro and viewing the macro it is quite possible to identify the changing balance of world power. The World has moved on from the post war US/USSR Superpower confrontation. The US faces a new rival. It is not China – significant though China is. It is the Global South and the growing evidence of the establishment of a multi-polar world system of power.
The US is under challenge. It has peaked. Emerging countries are forcing a change in the structure of world power. US politicians may talk the Big Talk because it is politically essential to the operation of their domestic political system but to the rest of the world the writing is on the wall. A new Balance of World Power is coming into operation and new centres of influence are coming into play – Indonesia, Argentine, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam and more. Each country will have its own set of priorities but with BRICS there is evidence that they realise the benefits of mutual economic and political co-operation.
So the holding of two significant international events – one in Washington and one in Kazan is a moment in time. The mantle of supreme power is slipping away from Washington and passing – not to China – but to a number of countries, including China. Multi-polar is the new language of international politics.
GRAHAM PERRY
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HOW BAD WAS THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION?
It was very bad.
Mayhem, violence, intolerance, revenge, deaths.
But How did it Happen?
Politics became intense as violence replaced reason as the proper method of discussion and decision making.
But How was this Possible?
The Party lost control – people with a heightened political agenda took control.
But How?
Because the Leaders of this Left political campaign – the Gang of Four – invoked Mao’s words in support of their extremist action.
So is Mao to Blame?
In part – Yes. He allowed his name to be used to whip the people into a frenzy
The extent to which he lent his name and the extent to which others used his name is a matter of debate.
But his Reputation has taken a Knock?
Yes. He allowed himself to be regarded as a Messiah with omnipotent power and influence.
He and the Party and the People paid a high price.
Mao’s importance to China’s Revolution is still positive because he led China to Liberation in 1949
But there is a significant downside as well and he is not free from blame for the excesses.
So is Mao Good or Bad?
Both. The judgment has to be balanced.
The Chinese said after the arrest of the Gang of Four “Mao was 70% Good and 30% Bad”
But that balance will change to Mao’s detriment as the history of the period is reviewed
When will the Review take place?
Not this year or next.
But is it discussed?
Yes – within the Party – 98m people but not yet among the people.
The time will come when the assessment of the period is opened up to the 1.4bn people
But the priority today is not reviewing Mao but in turning China into a “Prosperous Country”
Unity not Division is the priority.
But the time will come when more about the Good and Bad of Mao will be up for discussion.
NEXT ISSUE – IS CHINA A DEMOCRACY OR A DICTATORSHIP?
