GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
Wendy Sherman is the US Deputy Secretary of State. She flies to China for talks with Wang Yi on 26 July 2021 + the Western media is full of speculation about the topics that will be discussed. But, not for the first time, the media misses the overarching geopolitical issue that sets the scene for the discussion of any one topic.
The macro-political prism through which to view the discussions is the rise of China and the decline of the USA. It is the development that provides the backdrop to consideration of any of the individual issues that the media suggests will be discussed.
So what are the issues? – the alleged crackdown on freedoms in HK; the alleged persecution of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang; the military build-up over Taiwan; Biden insistence on showing no post-Trump weakening re US policy towards China; the increased activity of the Quad Initiative (US/Japan/Australia/India), the stalling of the EU Investment Treaty; China’s alleged human rights abuses; China’s alleged cyber warfare; China’s push for digitalisation of the RMB.
Each one of these issues has a linked context to the above-stated number one geopolitical issue. They are not just separate individual issues. They are joined by a sturdy thread of iron cotton. From the West’s point of view it is; What To Do About China?
And the choice remains Either/Or. Either Biden Confronts China or Biden Co-operates with China. The first means tension + the probable outbreak of War. The second means peace + a growing inter-relationship. The Thucydides Principle of US Professor Allison predicts War and that remains the thinking of the Pentagon. The preference is that the US accepts the reality of Change. The World today is not the World of 1945 nor even 2010. The Change is that Rapid.