GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
Today the headlines are dominated by Ukraine. The focus of the world is on the hostilities between Russia + Ukraine as speculation mounts about the outcome. Will Ukraine commit to a Non-NATO policy? How will Russia enforce such an outcome? Will Russia require border countries with agreements to allow NATO into their territory to change direction and expel NATO? Will the West stand idly by as NATO moves onto the back foot?
There are big questions – for Ukraine, for Europe and for the Balance of Power between the US, China, Russia, the EU, Taiwan, and South-East Asia. Alongside the key geopolitical issues, there lies one world issue that hovers over every international political consideration – Donald Trump.
70m Americans voted for Trump. Biden’s victory in 2016 was clear but not emphatic + Trump is building up a presence in anticipation that he may run in the Presidential race in 2024. He faces difficulties – the investigation into the 6 January 2020 attempted coup detat in Washington will conclude with a finding of Trump’s contrivance + Trump is struggling to protect his financial empire from persistent + widespread investigation by the US authorities.
The US is of key importance in world affairs. It is the leading economic power in the world with military bases all around the world – 52 such bases in Asia with missiles aimed at China in permanent readiness. Biden is conventional, predictable and reliable. Trump is the opposite – unconventional, unpredictable and unreliable. This is not just a US issue – it is a world geopolitical issue with implications across the globe including the Arctic, Alaska + Latin America. The world watches + waits. Countries will hedge their bets uncertain as to the policies that will emanate from Washington.
Democracy has its plusses. There is a system of law that protects the rights of individuals but it comes at a cost. Which way is the US going forward?
POST #377 17 MARCH 2022
CHINA AND SOUTH KOREA