GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
30 JUNE 2026. CHINA POST #627
CHINA AND THE FOREIGN MEDIA
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A SUMMARY OF THIS ISSUE – CHINA POST #627
- WEALTH AND SOCIALISM IN CHINA
- CUBA AT RISK
- THE THUCYDIDES TRAP REVISITED
- POST #628 – CHINA AND JACK PERRY IN 1951
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WEALTH AND INHERITANCE IN CHINA
China has Billionaires. They have contributed significantly to the surge in China’s journey to challenge the U.S. for the position of #1 Economic Power. But does it come at a cost? How do the Billionaires sit alongside China’s goal to create a Socialist Country with Chinese Characteristics. How do Billionaires fit into the issues of Class Struggle that, hitherto, have always been at the heart of Mao’s revolution?
The Anti-China response is to see the Billionaires as evidence of the failure of the Marxist Experiment. “It doesn’t work. Socialism cannot deliver. It has to rely on Capitalism to bring the prosperity that the Government needs to deliver to its people”
There is another explanation. Something with echoes of Lenin’s New Economic Policy “One Step Back, Two Steps Forward”. The explanation is this; After the Cultural Revolution China’s priority was to develop its productive forces. The economy had to grow. The people had to experience the fruits of their hard labour. Deng Hsiaoping touched the mood when he declared that “it did not matter whether it was the white cat or the black cat that caught the mouse as long as it caught the mouse” It did not matter whether it was the planned economy or the market economy as long as it promoted economic development. But, and this is the big difference between the old USSR and today’s China, the Party remained in control. Not a Party that was dominated by the Oligarchs (as in the USSR) but a Party that dominated the Billionaires (Ask Jack Ma).
But working with the Billionaires does raise questions, What does Socialism mean in China today? Do widening wage differentials create the formation of different levels of income that have the long-term effect of crystallising the re-emergence of classes in China? Are there Rich Billionaires at the Top and Poor Unemployed at the Bottom? Looking ahead, will wage differentials narrow in the interests of Socialism or widen in the interests of Capitalism?
TAX PLANNING AND FAMILY GENERATIONS
And another question – this one for the future. What does increasing wealth at the top mean for tax planning and inheritance issues? Are the Billionaires permitted to engage in planning for wealth distribution to their children and grandchildren, nieces and nephews and, if this is permitted, how does this avoid the re-emergence of a class structure that offends the fundamental principles of the Marxist journey through Socialism to Communism and the Classless Society?
Do Billionaires have a wealth plan? Are there lawyers and accountants in China earning large fees assisting the Billionaires to pass on their wealth to their children? Such professionals in the West become rich advising the Rich. Is the same happening in China? Is the wealth – initially accumulating in gold and property – now moving into financial products abroad or does the State regulate the distribution of such wealth in order to restrict the accumulation of wealth and preserve the goal of creating a classless society?
CHINA ON THE MOVE
So there is a context for a country on the move – from a Labour Intensive Economy of the 1990’s to a Capital Intensive Economy of the 2000s to a Hi-Tech Intensive Economy of 2030.
Put simply in the 1980’s the goal was for every household to have a bicycle, a watch and a sewing machine. In the 1990’s the goal was for every household to have a refrigerator, a washing machine and a colour tv. In the 2000s the goal was for every household to have an air conditioner, a VCR and a computer.
Today China has upgraded its industrial ambition and wants to develop its productive forces in order to focus on three new priorities – electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries.
THE WHITE CAT OR THE BLACK CAT OR BOTH
“I don’t mind if it is the market economy or the socialist collective economy that produces a better life for the Chinese people, so long as one or the other succeeds”. If the socialist collective economy produces wealth then the benefits go to the State and are re-circulated for the good of the people. If the market economy produces wealth a large share of that wealth will go to the Billionaires, who have risked all to create wealth, but with a substantial drop-down to the nation as a whole through the circulation of money to the non-Billionaires.
With both the socialist collective economy and the market economy good things flow – that is clear but to the extent that it flows to the Billionaires questions do arise about the accumulation of wealth, the transference of wealth and inheritance of wealth down the generations.
McKINSEY AND THE VIETNAM EXAMPLE
Can the first wave of modern entrepreneurs pass assets, and control, to their heirs? Is the first generation entitled to pass wealth and ownership to a second generation of inheritance-benefitting owners. What happens to Jack Ma’s wealth? Does it go to the State or to his family?
China has a population of 1.4bn. Vietnam has a population of approximately 100 million.
McKinsey and Company have estimated that around $380 billion is held in Vietnam in personal financial assets in 2025, a figure McKinsey expects to see increase to $570 billion by 2030.
By comparison, U.S. households hold more than $130 trillion in financial assets, while Japan’s total exceeds $15 trillion so Vietnam remains small by comparison. However, its rapid growth underscores the early stages of a fast-emerging market. Is Vietnam a pointer to China’s future?
“Vietnam is very unique,” said Arsh Khosla, a McKinsey consultant. “First, there’s a lot of rapid wealth creation in Vietnam. Second, it’s a very heavily business owner-led market when you look at the high net worth segment.“
McKinsey has noted a shift in Vietnam from physical to financial assets that reflect not just greater wealth, but a change in priorities. Unlike their parents, Vietnamese younger wealthy investors are more willing to pay advisers for long-term management strategies.
Portfolios in Vietnam, say McKinsey, are expanding into securities, insurance products, cryptocurrencies and cross-border allocations. Demand in Vietnam is rising for advice on taxes, succession planning, and international corporate expansion.
It is too mechanical to conclude – “To view China look at Vietnam”. But there are similarities. Both countries have at the heart of political power a Communist Party which in both countries came to power after years of struggle and sacrifice by the people. Both were mainly agrarian non-industrialised nations and both have sought economic progress utilising aspects of the capitalist model of growth.
THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL
The command economy of the USSR in the 1930s is a thing of the past. The future indicates in both Vietnam and China a willingness to embrace aspects of the capitalist commodity economy. And there has been undeniable progress. But has the point been reached when questions have to be asked about the future direction of travel?
The shift from physical to financial assets reflects not just greater wealth, but a change in priorities. Unlike their parents, younger wealthy investors in Vietnam are more willing to pay advisers for long-term management strategies. Is that also the case in China? How do the rich in China reconcile their family priorities with the best interests of the people of China? How does the Chinese Government reconcile the emergence of Billionaire Wealth with the creation of a Socialist State? Or does the increasing official reference to “Common Prosperity” convey a significant step away from the goal of a Classless Society?
THE VIETNAM EXAMPLE – AGAIN
In Vietnam McKinsey report that portfolios are expanding into securities, insurance products, cryptocurrencies and cross-border allocations. Beyond investment, demand is rising for advice on taxes, succession planning, and international corporate expansion.
In Vietnam Nguyen Duc Thai, CEO of SAPP Academy, a Vietnam-based financial training provider says; “There has been a culture of people not wanting to disclose their wealth“. That reluctance has roots in Vietnam’s history, including efforts to dismantle landlord classes in the past, as well as more recent corruption crackdowns. Echoes here of China’s recent past?
Duc Thai said attitudes are shifting in Vietnam. Younger business owners are “gradually expressing” themselves more openly and are more willing to seek help managing their finances. “They don’t feel as much need to hide anymore,” he said.
In China we can anticipate that Banks and Insurers will step up attempts to wine and dine clients; offer airport lounges with fast-track boarding and access to doctors making house calls; in addition tickets to the opera and invitations to golf resorts will follow. Will this aspect of Prosperity for a Few undermine China’s efforts to construct Prosperity for All across the nation?
Maspreet Singh, HSBC Vietnam’s head of customer propositions and marketing has noted that “An adviser can no longer be a transactional salesperson. They must become the lead architect of a customer’s aspirations and goals blueprint.” Will China be so different?
And in China it is in the residential homes market that the Billionaires, the heads of corporations, and the high net-worth individuals, will become more apparent.
CHINA – EYES WIDE OPEN
It is a challenge. China is further along the path of the new society than Vietnam. Their Billionaires are buying into exclusivity and the amenities that come with luxury flats.
The future in China is not plain sailing. Widening wage differentials and rising inequality has triggered a sharpening scrutiny of how wealth is accumulated and deployed. And divisions are appearing. Again, a glance at Vietnam where leading property acquisition company, Savills, has predicted that the number of people with assets of $30 million or more will rise by 59% over the next five years. And as China is challenged by the trends so apparent in Vietnam, the question is no longer just how to build wealth, but how to manage, preserve, and pass it on — a shift that is likely to reshape the country’s financial landscape in the years ahead.
China is ‘Eyes Wide Open’ about this issue. A decision to embrace the socialist market economy and to welcome Billionaires to apply for membership of the Communist Party would not have been made if the Politburo had not thought through the challenges that such key initiatives would present to the political goals of the Politburo. China is treading a path where none have gone before and it will be wrestling with the challenge created by Deng’s dictum. Prosperity and Stability remain the two standout words that define China’s advance but handling the future role of the Billionaire class will challenge the political leadership of Xi Jinping and his successors.
The significant point is that the key intervention by the Party to stop the proposed record braking Jack Ma Alibaba public offering in Hongkong in 2024 was a big statement of policy. Unlike the USSR where Gorbachev surrendered to the Oligarchs, in China Xi and the Party are in control the of the Billionaires and not vice versa.
THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
There is a need for historical perspective on the issue. It was only in 1848 that the Communist Manifesto was published; only in 1917 that the Russian Revolution ushered in the era of the Communist Experiment; and only in 1949 that China embarked on what is truly a Gigantic Experiment. The China experience will be refined, adjusted and extended in the decades, eras, centuries ahead. We, today in 2026, are just a moment in time. The Future has a considerably longer time span. Today is Important. Tomorrow is More Important. And the path that China takes has big consequences for the world
GRAHAM PERRY
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TWO EXTRACTS
SUMMARIES
#1 CUBA AT RISK
Will Trump – desperate for a Bounce-Back after the setbacks with Iran – try to deflect international attention with a Cuba Grab? Will he go for a Second Bay of Pigs? Has he calculated correctly that Cuba will offer minimal resistance?
#2 THE THUCYDIDES TRAP REVISTED
Prof Allison of Harvard University persuaded Xi Jinping in their lengthy one-on-one meeting in Beijing to look – not just at ATHENS V SPARTA – but also at ROME V PERSIA. The first example led to war as the Existing Power was challenged by the Rising Power. The second example led to strategic equilibrium as a military stalemate prevailed.
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#1 CUBA VULNERABLE
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
“The assessment by Jingan Technology, a civilian start-up founded in 2021 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, said that if the US were to use force against Cuba, it would most likely take the form of a rapid “decapitation and paralysis” operation aimed at regime change, rather than a large-scale invasion.
The company uses artificial intelligence and data analytics to analyse national security and defence challenges. It based its assessment on the “rhythm” of US military deployments around Cuba” – which it said intensified in recent months – and on political cycles.
“As the US-Iran gambit slides towards a defining conclusion, the US urgently needs to achieve a low-cost, high-yield symbolic strategic victory in its ‘geopolitical backyard’ of the western hemisphere to restore its global dominance and deterrence posture,” it said in an article published on its social media account on 10 July 2026.
The timing of the US midterm elections in November was also cited as a potential driver, with the company suggesting that US President Donald Trump might seek a quick win to boost political support.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Trump is struggling. He has come off second best re China since his rapid escalation of tariffs triggered a China reaction at Seoul in October 2025 which led to a big reduction in China exports to the U.S. of indispensable rare earths. Trump also came off second best following his visit to China.
Additionally, Canada – in the person of new Prime Minister Carney – has landed blows against the Trump administration, and the Iran War has left Trump looking weak and vulnerable.
It is against this background that there is speculation that Trump may seize upon a decisive move against Cuba – to compensate for the blows he has sustained in recent months. Trump is all about Ego. With the Mid-Term Elections approaching, he needs a victory of significant impact – and regime change in Havana is on his agenda.
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#2 THE THUCYDIDES TRAP REVIEWS ATHENS v SPARTA OR ROME v PERSIA?
I RECENTLY READ AN INTERESTING ARTICLE ON U.S. – CHINA RIVALRY. I CANNOT TRACK IT FOR ATTRIBUTION FOR WHICH APOLOGIES. THAT SAID IT PROMPTS AN INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE.
“During the Trump visit, Xi spoke about the need to avoid the Thucydides Trap – a reference to the bitter rivalry between the ancient Greek city-states of Sparta and Athens that became shorthand for describing the inevitable conflict between a rising power and a sitting hegemon. Today historians, – Allison and Mearsheimer to name the two most prominent in the U.S. – view the U.S. as the established power and China as the rising power.
But another historical comparison is just as important: the rivalry between ancient Rome and Persia. Their relationship evolved from bitter conflict into a unique equilibrium where both sides hailed each other as “the two eyes of the world” – the earliest expression of the concept of a Group of 2.
Rome, like the modern-day United States, seldom recognised peer powers, preferring total domination. Even when facing existential defeat, for example during the war with Carthage and Hannibal, Rome routinely refused peace offers until it could secure total victory – a mentality unique in the ancient world.
The famous Pax Romana, or Roman Peace, could only be achieved when all others were either dead or subjugated. For the past few decades, we have lived in a world of Pax Americana, where the US has reigned supreme like its spiritual forefathers.
For Rome, the sole exception to this rule was the Persian Empire – the other superpower to its east (as Han China was simply too far away). Between 54BC and 628AD, the two (Rome and Persia) fought a series of devastating wars.
Rome changed from a republic to an empire, and Persia transitioned from the Parthian Empire to the Sasanian Empire, yet the warfare persisted.
Emperors were captured and killed, capital cities were razed and millions died until both sides realised that neither possessed the resources or political will to conquer the other.
Out of this, a strategic equilibrium emerged. Rome and Persia began to regard one another as peers and even as mutual stabilising forces amid the chaos of late antiquity.
“It is obvious to all mankind that the Roman and the Persian empires are just like two eyes. It is necessary that, like eyes, the one is brightened by the light of the other, and they do not angrily strive for each other’s destruction,” the Sassanian Emperor Khosrow II wrote to his Roman counterpart Maurice in the 6th century.
This paragraph would not have read out of place in Beijing last week.
Ironically, despite all the blood spilled over 700 years, Rome and Persia did not ultimately perish at each other’s hands.
Rome had already been split in two, with the Western Roman Empire being overrun by Germanic tribes such as the Franks, Vandals and Ostrogoths. Meanwhile, an exhausted Persia was conquered by the Arab armies, whom the Persians had treated as inferiors for centuries, after the rise of Islam.
In a final twist of fate, the last Persian prince, Peroz III, became a political refugee, spending the rest of his days in Tang dynasty (618-907) China.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Seoul 2025 was a Moment In Time. The Established Power, the U.S., recognised that the Rising Power, China, had leverage – Rare Earths. China has acquired a crucial dominance that is forcing the U.S. to review how it lives alongside Xi Jinping. Even today the world does not see the significance. The U.S. historians do. They know the balance of power has changed. The needle has moved.
But there is a difference between Xi and the U.S. Historians. They view China as a rising Hegemon that will want to be the #1 Power in the East. Wrong. China’s power is exercised for one purpose and not two. It anticipates that the U.S. may well attack China – not necessarily with bombs but with the interruption of sea lanes especially the Malacca Straits in order to stifle the flow of essential goods to China. The U.S. will always want to squeeze China into submission.
China’s goal remains two fold – Stability and Prosperity. It will play a growing role in international affairs but not with a view to imperial dominance – merely that its growing economic development shoots it to #1 spot on other countries list of important partners. Beijing airport will be busy for many years to come with the red carpet for visiting Heads of State. And bear in mind that the U.S. has 800+ military bases overseas. China has just 1.
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CHINA POST #628 WILL LOOK BACK TO THE DR JI – JACK PERRY RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE JACK ROLE.
WHAT TURNED HIM TOWARDS POLITICS AND THE UK COMMUNIST PARTY?
HOW DID HIS LINKS WITH THE UK COMMUNIST PARTY LEAD HIM TO THE MOSCOW INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC CONFERENCE IN 1952?
HOW DID HE ASSESS THE INVITATION FROM DR JI TO FORM A COMPANY IN THE UK FOR THE PURPOSE OF PROMOTING TRADE WITH THE NEW CHINA?
HOW DID JACK AND HIS WIFE HANDLE THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN FAMILY FINANCES?
HOW DID JACK ENCOUNTER UK’S MI5?
GRAHAM PERRY – 30 JUNE 2026
