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Monday, May 16, 2022

CAN CHINA BE CONTAINED? #255

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Graham Perry
Experienced Arbitration Lawyer | China & Chinese Business Affairs | Public Speaker/Lecturer.

GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON

Increasingly it is clear that the US wants to contain China; to prevent China from becoming the #1 Economic Power; to ensure the US stays as #1 Economic Power. Is this possible? Bear in the mind the following;-

1. China is not the old USSR. Its government is capable; its population is larger; its economy is more successful + more dynamic.

2. China is not isolated from but integrated with, the world through trade. There is not a Western CEO who does not have a China Strategy. Big Business wants more, not less, of China

3. The US experience with Trump has worried the world with its instability, rhetoric and departure from its own democratic norms.
Trump has not gone away. He won 74m votes. And as soon as Biden’s hits the rocks, Trump will be self-promoting.

5. The US recovered from the 1957 shock of Sputnik + 1961 Yuri Gagarin in space. Can the US re-group again + challenge China? Can it reanimate its technological base this time around? Does the US have the ability/determination to reinvigorate its economy + infrastructure a second time around?

6. Does the US model of development has the necessary appeal in the developing world. Can it present an alternative to China’s model? Does the US have its own Belt+Road Initiative?

7. Is the Western model of freedom + democracy more attractive than China’s model of authoritarian democracy? Which works best going forward? 140m Chinese tourists travelled abroad in 2019, voted with their feet + all returned home.

8. Can the US re-invent itself, achieve stability, reach out with conviction/confidence and re-launch itself to be the #1 Economic Power?

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