GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
PEARLS AND IRRITATIONS is a strangely titled Australian publication that maintains a high level of topical comment on Australian affairs, Gaza, Ukraine and international affairs generally. I reproduce, with acknowledgement, a recent article on China’s Economy by a recognized Professor of Economic. My comments appear in bold.
The author, John F. Copper, is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than thirty-five books on China, Taiwan, and U.S. Asia policy.
Prof Copper reproduces what he describes as “An extraordinary chart from The Pioneer below compares nations whose largest trading partner was either the USA or China in the year 2000 and the year 2020. Over one short decade, it is a powerful visualisation of how the world’s economic centre shifted.”
Professor Copper writes;-
“In the late 1970s, I spent some months at Stanford University working on a new book. It was subsequently published under the title China’s Global Role: An Analysis of Peking’s National Power Capabilities in the Context of an Evolving International System.
I argued that China was not a great power. Its population was the largest in the world. Its land area made it number 3. But its economy, its science and technology, its financial resources, and more made it a second level power and essentially a Third World country.
Colleagues agreed and I won a book award for my efforts.
Meanwhile, in 1976, China’s revered leader, Mao Zedong, died. After a hiatus of little over two years Deng Xiaoping (whom Mao had labelled a “capitalist roader” and purged) returned to the top leadership and quickly became its number one.
Deng declared China had failed to become a world power. Its economy had recovered after World War II plus a civil war that followed ending in 1949. But after the mid-1950s China did not perform as well as the average Third World country.
Deng blamed Mao’s radical egalitarian communism and its isolation from all but the other communist nations of the world. He performed “radical surgery” in adopting a free market, incentives, and foreign trade while paring the authority of the Communist Party over the economy.
Under Deng, China essentially adopted a capitalist system. Its economy boomed as a result. In fact, its gross domestic product expanded at what economists called a miracle rate and it became the only large country in the world to do so well.
In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organisations to formalise its reforms and take advantage of specialising in products it could export and thereby earn foreign exchange and gain global influence.
The year 2008 was a turning point. The world, including the United States, owning the top global economy, experienced a recession. China did not. Further, President Obama oversaw what was almost America’s worst recovery ever.
In 2009, China became the world’s largest exporting country. In 2013, it became the planet’s biggest trading country, passing the United States. In 2014, China’s gross national product made it number one worldwide if calculated in purchasing power parity (a metric used by a host of international organisations). In 2015, China’s spending on research and development matched the United States. In 2016, China registered more patents than the U.S.
Meanwhile, China became number one in the world in foreign exchange. It passed the U.S. in auto production. It bested American in steel production by several fold. It was graduating eight or nine-fold the number of graduates in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and medicine).
In the past few years China overtook the United States in artificial intelligence, quantum physics, robotics (with more than half of the world’s robots working in factories), and much more. This predicted China would soon best the U.S. in military capabilities.
As noted in the chart above, China has far surpassed the United States to become the world’s foremost trading nation. In 2023, China was the top trading partner of 120 countries. (There are reportedly 206 countries in the world, 193 in the United Nations).
This gives China enhanced image. It facilitates its diplomacy and its media reach. It alone makes it a large power.
But it does more than that because China’s trade has been favourable (meaning it exports more than it imports), giving China a major source of foreign exchange. This, plus China’s high saving rate and less expensive government, enables China to grow its military budget, spend more on R&D, and provide vast economic assistance to friendly nations.
(Incidentally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has passed $1 trillion in giving. Washington’s largest project ever was the rebuilding Europe after World War II, which amounted to just over 100 billion in today’s dollars).
The U.S. concurrently faced a huge debt. Paying the interest on it means increasing the defence budget, spending more on research, and giving more foreign aid has become difficult to impossible.
I do not apologise for saying back then that China was not a leading country in terms of national power capabilities. I was not wrong. China made record speed to change that.
Some American leaders, not to mention, many pundits, warn that China will soon pass the U.S. to become the world’s number one power. Some say it is already too late; China is number one
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
There is nothing triumphalist about the approach of Good Morning From London. The goal is not to prove that China is #1 or that China is Great or that China is the Best. This is not a soccer match. It is not the Olympics. None of this is the purpose of this publication. China is doing OK – with or without the help of Good Morning from London.
It’s the World – Stupid. Nothing More and Nothing Less. China is changing the world on its own terms. It is the New Boy on the Block and the established world does not like it.
China was ridiculed, mocked, laughed at. What does a Communist Country know about growth, development, or a better life? China is run by a Communist Party and what do Communists know about the good life? China is oppressive, brutal, malevolent, all-conquering, tyrannical, dictatorial, expansionist, imperialist, genocidal and more. The idea that China should lift one billion people out of poverty is too far-fetched to warrant serious consideration. Why? – because China bullies its people. China cannot create a consumer society with more cars and clothes and holidays. Communist countries cannot do that. It’s just not possible.
Or is it?
Professor Copper says it how it is. I doubt that he is a Marxist-Leninist theologian. I am sure he has not spent his time studying Lenin’s State and Revolution or Marx’s Critique of the Gotha Programme or even the Communist Manifesto. He is a “Facts” man. It is what it is. What you see is what you get. China is on a surge.
And Washington, London, Tokyo, and Canberra disapprove. It cannot be. It must be wrong. The figures must be fiddled. And when they don’t add up and China is actually out-performing the West, a second argument comes into play – China Is A Threat. China threatens the countries of South East Asia; it dominates the South China Sea; it harasses Taiwan and is ever-ready to achieve
its goals by military conquest.
And if you do not like China – if you do not like any government that is headed by a Communist Party you will clutch at the Uighur issue in order to damn China as a genocidal power that relies on Forced Labour. But the base is being eaten away. There is no oppression of national minorities in China. It is the Argument of Last Resort. If all else fails then accuse China of being racist, murderous, tyrannical. Throw enough mud and some will stick but it will slip away as the evidence becomes clearer.
There was no genocide. There was no racism. Uighur extremists led by the East Turkestan Independence Movement [ETIM] raised the banner of revolt in support of secessionist moves to separate the Xinjiang Autonomous Region from China. There was War. There was Revolt. China was challenged and China Went to War. There were deaths, executions and imprisonment. The revolt was put down. China will not permit any part of its territory to be hived off – not Taiwan, not the Indian border, not the seal lanes in the South China Sea and not the Xinjiang Autonomous Region.
The issue of the Uighurs is an issue of territorial integrity. It is not an issue of race.
China’s critics use the Uighur issue to defy people who are showing signs of softness on China to embrace China. “You can’t” – The cry goes. “China is as bad as Hitler”.
Back to Prof Copper and begin to take China seriously – not as a threat but as the country that will play the most significant role in international affairs for the rest of this Century – and beyond. Disregard China. Demonise China. It won’t work because China is not a threat. On the contrary it points the way to a more harmonious globe.
GRAHAM PERRY
