GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
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TRUMP v CHINA
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Tense times. Will trouble break out on the streets in Washington or Beijing or both? There is a parallel.
On May 7, 1999, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia known as Operation Allied Force, five U.S. guided bombs hit the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Belgrade killing three Chinese journalists. The Chinese public took to the streets in Beijing and protested vigorously outside the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. In due course the CIA Director admitted that the CIA had identified the wrong coordinates for a Yugoslav military target on the same street. The Chinese government issued a statement on the day of the bombing, calling it a “barbarian act”. Large crowds of Chinese citizens took to the streets leading to the US Embassy in Beijing and maintained an angry and vigorous protest for many days.
This incident comes to mind when viewing the TV coverage of current events in the U.S. and China arising out of the imposition of Trump’s Tariffs. There is a process underway. Statement and counter-statement is upping the tension. Trump wants his Tariffs to bite. He wants China to feel the pain. He calculates that the citizens of China will blame their own Government for the economic hardship created by Tariffs of 125%. Trump wants to see the Chinese government destabilised and for the people of China to be roused to anger aimed at the Beijing Government.
But – bearing in mind the street protests in Beijing in 1999 caused by the bombing of the Chinese Embassy – it is much more likely that the ire of the Chinese people will be directed at the U.S. Embassy and not at the Chinese government.
Events are moving quickly and big changes in the market for U.S. Treasury Bonds are widely believed to have triggered the Trump introduction of a worldwide 90 Day pause in Tariffs – with the exception of China. Trump blinked and the world media focus is much more on the minute-by-minute changes of Trump policy in Washington than on the resolute response of Beijing not to show any concession to Trump.
This is a trial of strength. This is not about Tariffs. It is about Power. And it goes much deeper than events of the last few days. The origin goes back to the Communist Manifesto of 1848, the Russian Revolution of 1917 and the inauguration of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
The U.S. saw off the challenge of the USSR with the collapse of the Gorbachev Government of 1991. Now there was only one Superpower – the USA. China would go the same way as the USSR – thought Washington. If China was admitted to the World Trade Organisation, China would enjoy prosperity. The people would experience a better life. Burgeoning economic rights would bring about a change in the political system in China leading to the marginalisation of the Communist Party. The challenge of Communism – this time from China – would be met head on. The Capitalist West would succeed and the Communist East would be defeated. Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, NATO, Tokyo and Canberra would prevail.
But things did not follow the Chatham House/West Point blueprint. Beijing was not for turning. It put its foot on the accelerator and China began to surge. DeepSeek was China’s Sputnik moment. Beijing represented a new challenge. Trump decided to meet it head-on. And so today we have a Head-to-Head challenge – Washington v Beijing. But the China of today has more resilience than the USSR of yesterday. The Western Capitals know they are in a fight.
Maybe the Tariff War has miles still to run. Trump has lit the blue touch paper and he waits in vain for a Chinese step back. Assuming War does not break out – please bear in mind Professor Allison’s Thucydides Trap – there will be an accord and civilities will be restored but things will never be the same again. This is a moment in time. China has stood up.
