GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
IS WAR INEVITABLE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA?
Here is an edited version of a significant discussion that took place at the recently held Munch Security Conference between Professor Graham Allison of Harvard University and Dr Huiyao Wang of the Centre for China and Globalisation based in Beijing.
They discussed Dr Wang’s new book (“Escaping Thucydides’s Trap: Dialogue with Graham Allison on China-US Relations”) which is grounded on and develops arguments made in Professor Allison’s highly influential 2017 book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap.”
Allison was the only US scholar alongside American business tycoons who met Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2024. In December 2024, he was received one-on-one by Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s highest echelon of power. And on 15 February 2025, he was the only non-governmental person Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to Chinese foreign ministry’s press release.
Dr Wang began the discussion in this way:
“[Graham] you’ve been witnessing all those changes between China and the US, but also the great changes taking place in China and the US, and in their relations.
But of course, since President Trump took office, there are some positive signs coming up between China and the US. So we’re hoping that we can have a better relation, probably during his term. Can you give me your update, and we can have more discussion after that.”
Professor Allison responded:
“So one of the things that people most often get wrong about the original book, which is called “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, is the suggestion or the belief that it says war between the US and China is inevitable. And I think this comes from Thucydides’ great line in which he said it was the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.
But, as I explained in the book, even Thucydides didn’t mean 100% by inevitable. He meant very likely. So my argument in this book is that when a rapidly rising power seriously threatens to disrupt a major ruling power, most often the outcome is war. So the structural factors probably account for 75% or 80% of what’s going to happen.
But that doesn’t eliminate human agency. There’s still 20% or 25% there in which human leaders, taking advantage of the lessons they may have learned in previous cases, can make them successful without a war.
So this is not a fatalistic book. This is a book about how the US and China, if they were wiser, could escape Thucydides’s Trap.
And I think the reason for being slightly more optimistic at this point is that in President Trump, we have this new change agent. Now, there’s lots to be said about him. Much of it, and especially here that we’re in the Munich Security Summit after the last three days, makes one think, oh my God, okay, and I may be stretching a little bit to try to find silver linings. But at Davos this year, I was asked to try to be constructively optimistic. And I said I’m now prepared to make a bet, and I made a public bet about the proposition that a year from today, so January 2026, relations with the US and China will significantly improve. So we’ll be surprised on the upside..
[But] what about Trump? If you go back and look at the election that we just had, we had a whole year of campaigning until November 5th. 1,000 people running for national office. …. 80% of Americans have negative views of China. Not one candidate had anything nice to say about China. All 1,000 except for one. And this one said things like, “I respect China.” He said, “I respect, I very much respect Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is brilliant. People tell me I shouldn’t say this, but he’s brilliant. I know him. I want China to do well.”
So I think [Trump] might actually believe what he said or some portion of it. I think he may have quite a different conception of what the US-China relationship could be like.”
Dr Wang next discussed pivotal economic and trade aspects of the Sino-US relationship, noting some particular examples (like TikTok) before asking:
“[Graham] what do you think if both country governments pursue an economic approach, a trade approach, maybe we could find a way to collaborate, an investment approach, rather than geopolitical and military approach. How do you think about that?”
Professor Allison responded:
“Again, we can tell the story [of] how things go badly. And I think the Thucydian dynamics already give you a 75% chance things go badly. Then we have American public opinion, which is quite negative about China. That’s another powerful factor. Then we have the hawks in this administration.
That’s another big complicating factor.
Then we have the inevitable areas of the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Yes, and maybe even over Taiwan. So I can write that scenario in which things go badly. But I think if I look at the alternative, and again, stretching a little bit to try to be as realistically but constructively hopeful as I can.
Well, what does President Xi say that he wants in the relationship between US and China? Three things. One, mutual respect. Secondly, agreement, a peaceful competition. And third, that we reach win-win agreements. Yes, he says that over and over in the Chinese way of having their three or five things.
Well, almost all presidents have and certainly almost all of the extreme hawks start with that ideological perspective that China is a communist regime, that the regime itself, the CCP, is unacceptable because there’s an inevitable struggle between democracy and autocracy and between democracy and autocracy, free countries and communism.
[Yet] Trump seems completely uninterested in that argument.
But if you ask Tim Cook or Musk …their first lens is what is the economics of this exchange. I think in Trump’s case, it’s not just the business perspective, but I do think he’s got into his head that he wants to be a peacemaker. So when he talks about Ukraine, he says, look, this is senseless killing of all these people. It keeps going on and on.
And I think while Trump will continue to shock and confuse us because he enjoys doing that, that’s his kind of style of leadership and it’s different than anything else that I’ve seen. But I’d say we should look for opportunities where we can. And I think if I watch President Xi and his national security team, they’re very professional and they have a pretty good clear idea of things. So I’m betting the upside.”
Dr Huiyao Wang then persuasively argues how resilient China has proved to be over the last eight years, providing some cogent examples. He also stresses the point (regularly made by Martin Jacques and Kishore Mahbubani) that China’s thinking (and that resilience) is grounded in a worldview shaped by some 5,000 years of continuous civilisational history.
Graham Allison finishes the discussion in this way:
“[O]ne of the other interesting things that the book does, thanks to the work of Henry and the team, is advance a project that I’ve been working on, but I think other people should work on as well, which is finding examples in history in which parties that were fierce rivals nonetheless managed to survive together and even to cooperate in many arenas. And Chinese history is so long that there are many examples.
Finding cases where you have essentially Thucydian rivals or even just fierce rivals who discover that in spite of the fact that trying to win all the gold medals we get in the Olympics, we’re also cooperating in order to be able to have the Olympics.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Question; Is War between the U.S and China inevitable?
Answer; No
Question; Is War, therefore, unlikely?
Answer; No, War is more likely than unlikely
Question; But is War avoidable?
Answer; Yes. War is avoidable.
Decisions about War will be made by respective leaders at the height of head-to-head confrontation. It will depend on the respective mindsets of the two sets of leaders – as was the case in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when at the eleventh hour a deal was done – the US agreed to withdraw nuclear missiles in Turkey aimed at the USSR and the USSR agreed to refrain from placing nuclear missiles in Cuba aimed at the US. The human element intervened and peace was maintained.
The Thucydides Principle suggests that it was the rise of Athens that instilled fear in Sparta that made war inevitable. Fast forwarding to the present, the Principle suggests that the rise of China has instilled fear in the U.S such that war will break out.
So is war inevitable? No, war is possible but not inevitable.
It is avoidable but only if the respective leaders of the U.S. and China read the mindsets of their opposite numbers correctly – that is to say objectively and not subjectively. Only clear-headed analysis will avoid conflict and the required heavy dosage of cool analytical judgement will need to be in evidence on both sides if peace, and not war, is to prevail. It can be done.
GRAHAM PERRY
