GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
“CHINA IS READY FOR ANY TYPE OF WAR”
On 5 March 2025 the Chinese Embassy in Washington DC stated;-
“If the U.S truly wants to solve the fentanyl issue, then the right thing to do is to consult with China by treating each other as equals. If war is what the U.S. wants be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war we’re ready to fight till the end”.
War between the U.S. and China? Is it possible? Is this just a spur-of- the-moment throwaway comment from the Embassy? Or is it a sign of things to come? Is a trial of strength between the world’s two largest economies now underway? Has the time come to take the threat of war seriously? Is the world approaching a rerun of the Cuban 1962 Missile Crisis when the U.S and the then USSR went head-to- head.
War is not inevitable but it is quite possible. The Chinese statement is not idle talk – that is not the Chinese style. A tariff war is already underway as the two countries ratchet up the confrontation of words and seek to hurt each other with trade penalties that it is hoped will force either the U.S. or China to step back from the brink.
But this is about more than tariffs. There is an historical context suggested by Prof Graham Allison who has drawn on the Peloponnesian War (460 BC-404 BC) between Sparta and Athens that led to War. Allison alludes to the Thucydides Principle which has established that War is the likely outcome of a competition between an Established Power and a Rising Power. In today’s terms the U.S. is the former and China is the latter.
And as the two countries increase the tensions of head-to-head competition in tariffs, politics, diplomacy and armed face-to-face rivalries
in the Panama Canal, the Arctic Circle, the South Pacific and the South China Sea, the world needs to brace itself for war between the two giants of the present era.
The U.S. #1 issue is not Gaza or Ukraine or tariffs or fentanyl. It is China which since its admission into the World Trade Organisation has seen its economy surge ahead of the U.S. The genie is out of the box. At every turn China is on the move and its Sputnik Moment came a month ago when DeepSeek made a big statement about its ambition and capacity to develop Artificial Intelligence more quickly and more cheaply than its U,S, rivals. Additionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has seen it develop ongoing trade relations with more than 150 countries with the focus on infrastructure, ports, railways, roads and trans-national commercial links.
The U.S is still #1 but China will soon displace the U.S as the largest economy in the world. Time is not on Trump’s side. He needs to act if the U.S is to avoid becoming the new #2. This is not about Fentanyl or solar panels or Chinese motor vehicles. It is about much more and Trump has to decide whether the challenge from China is to be addressed through discussion + negotiation or through confrontation + war. The U.S. with its 800+ military bases is challenged by China with just one military base in Djibouti.
The stakes are high. National pride is in play. The hot line will become much hotter. War is possible but not inevitable. Seasoned diplomats exist on both sides and the two countries are braced for direct challenge and confrontation. If pressed, my view is that matters will go to the brink but diplomacy will win out and the U.S. will back off but not before sweaty palms and perspiring foreheads are much in evidence. Buckle up. It is going to be a rough ride.
GRAHAM PERRY
