GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
A COMMENT ON US, TAIWAN AND CHINA.
Relations between the US and Taiwan are quite rocky. There are two reasons. First, Trump is pressing Taiwan to increase its defence spending beyond 3% of GDP. Second, Trump has accused Taiwan of taking its semiconductor business away from the US and has threatened to impose high tariffs and economic sanctions on Taiwan as soon as next month to ensure “fair” and “reciprocal” trade.
Taiwan’s trade surplus with the United States surged to a record high of US$64.88 billion last year. Trump is angry and has taken aim at Taiwan’s chip industry particularly Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), by far the world’s largest chipmaker. The US depends on TSMC for its supply of semiconductors which are an essential part of every new motor vehicle.
The US, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but it is opposed to any attempt by China to seize the island by force and remains committed to arming Taiwan for its defence. But this is changing. Trump now prioritises domestic affairs over foreign policy, as reflected in his ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) stance, which places US interests above all else.
Additionally, Trump has repeatedly stated his reluctance to engage in wars. Taiwan will be reading the signals. Things that were secure now look flaky. After the Trump/Zelenskyy Oval Office bust-up Taiwan will be reviewing the reliability of the US as an ally. It’s time to talk to Beijing. Think about it;-
- China does not want war with Taiwan. Hostilities upsets China’s key strategic economic growth plans. War is a big unnecessary diversion of money and resources.
- Taiwan is not Hong Kong. It is a maturing democracy with a growing economy. Many Taiwanese do business with China. And provided Taiwan acknowledges it is a part of China it will operate, unlike Hong Kong, with considerable social and economic independence.
- The Oval Office fracas is a wake-up call to all US allies. The US is now marked “unreliable”. Taiwan will be worried.
- Add in the Trump anger at Taiwan’s insistence on protecting its very strong Semiconductor sector and you have a very provoked White House.
- In the event of armed conflict is there any way in which Taiwan would come out on top? The island would be devastated – look at previous US allies – Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Taiwan needs a change of direction. Taiwanese now have more to lose with Washington than with Beijing. It is time for Taiwan to pick up the phone and dial Beijing.
GRAHAM PERRY
