GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
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On 7 September 2024 Richard Moore – UK’s Chief of MI6 – and William Burns – the U.S. Chief of CIA – spoke together for the first time at an International Security Event organised by the Financial Times at Kenwood House in London.
At the Event the two speakers concluded that both foreign intelligence services (MI6 and CIA) saw the rise of China as the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century. They had re-organised their services “to reflect that priority”, the pair wrote. China was their agreed #1 target.
Following the fallout from the recent decision of the UK’s Director of Public Prosecutions not to proceed with the prosecutions of Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash you might be forgiven for concluding that in the world of international relations China is the sole villain of the peace and the Western world is the sole victim.
Any casual reading of History will speedily inform you that nations routinely spy on one another, including allies, for reasons of national security, economic advantage, and political insight. Espionage is a common practice driven by the belief that information is power and can be used for protection and leverage. While some intelligence-sharing alliances exist, like the “Five Eyes,” spying among allies remains common despite sharing common global political goals.
China spies on the UK. The UK spies on China. It is a given. What is a surprise is that bearing in mind that the UK authorities have highlighted China as a major threat that so little has in fact taken place to prove that the China threat is a reality. The sum total has been a prosecution of the two researchers. Bail was granted to the two men which suggests that this case was very much at the lighter end of serious and – bear in mind – that it was the DPP that decided not to proceed. The defendants had not skipped bail. They had not fled to China. They had repeatedly denied the offences with which they were charged. They were looking forward to “their day in Court”. So there is a big disconnect between the joint conclusion of MI6 and the CIA that China is the #1 threat to UK’s security on the one hand and the paltry sum total of their investigations on the other hand.
Please also be wary of attaching much importance to the media reports of cash being carried by one of the defendants. The evidence was not tested in court because the prosecution decided on their own initiative not to proceed with the charges.
There has been much smoke. But where is the fire? Either China is not carrying out espionage on an industrial or the massed forces in MI6 are not doing their job.
There is another point;- Fu Machu, Slant Eyes, the Yellow Peril – are the most notorious personification of Western views of the Chinese, and became the model for other villains in contemporary “Yellow Peril” thrillers: these villains often had characteristics consistent with xenophobic and racist stereotypes which coincided with a significant increase in racism.
Nations spy on Nations. Cable and Wireless had a free run in China with their telephonic equipment prior to 1949. The film Bridge of Spies highlighted the espionage carried out by the Russian spy, Abel, on the U.S. and the espionage carried out by the U.S. spy, Garry Powers, on Russia in his U2 high flying military airplane photography.
Readers of this Column will be aware that the West is meeting difficulty in adjusting to the new state of international politics. China seems to have come from nowhere and is now challenging the West in solar panels, electric cars, artificial intelligence and infrastructure development in China – and with BRICS nations across the globe (numbering 150) who have collectively received more than a trillion US Dollars from China in foreign aid loans.
It is in this context – the rise of China – that the Western obsession with China spies needs to be viewed. The real challenge for the UK is not whether two researchers based in the House of Commons were passing secrets to China but whether the UK has the mindset to understand what is happening in China and to know how to find the right approach to work with China – not against China. Hitherto the West – the UK included – have stumbled and blundered down the path to better relations with China and there is nothing presently in the UK media to suggest the UK knows how to enter into a fruitful and rewarding economic and political relationship with China.
The road ahead is rocky not smooth.
GRAHAM PERRY
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#2 EXTRACTS – (1)
RARE EARTHS – UK ALSO ASLEEP ON THE JOB?
ED CONWAY – SUNDAY TIMES
“There are tonnes of rare earths to be found in submarines, in fighter jets, in tanks and frigates, not to mention nuclear reactors… So, securing a supply of rare earths matters enormously for everything from the tech sector to energy to the military. And right now about 70% of the world’s rare earth elements are mined in China. Roughly 90% of the finished products (including magnets) are made in China…If China decided to stop all its exports, it would cause economic destruction of a kind that it is hard to comprehend”.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Somehow the Americans “went to sleep on the job”. They switched off. They failed to recognise the ever-present importance of rare earths and surrendered a key initiative to China. Rare Earths, together with recent developments in soyabeans and semiconductors have changed the balance of economic power between the U.S. and China. And not just economic power – political power too.
China will handle its newly acquired power with care. It will not drive the U.S. into the ground. China knows that the U.S. will remain a significant world power but developments in rare earths, soyabeans and semiconductors will change “the poker hand” that the U.S. boasts of holding. The U.S. ceases to hold all the aces and that will impact upon every key negotiation (economic and political) that takes place between the two countries. The change is that important.
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#2 EXTRACTS – (2)
ARE WOMEN PROGRESSING IN CHINA OR STANDING STILL?
BY MME REN YAN – SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
“Every Lunar New Year, the urban professional woman — let’s call her Tracy — returns to her rural hometown, where she quickly drops her city identity for her simple rural name Cuihua, helping her family prepare the holiday meal. How does “Cuihua” become “Tracy”?
Her journey involves more than a change of name; it encompasses the dramatic rise of Chinese women’s social status driven by personal resilience, family support and a nationwide campaign.
My own defining moment, writes Tracy/Cuihua, came three decades ago. A well-meaning rural relative reminded me to spend less money, as my parents should save for my brother, the family’s “pillar”. The moment was seared into my memory by my father’s response. He would not tolerate anyone suggesting I was less valuable. Looking straight at me, he said, “Whatever your brother has, you have too.” This personal victory, repeated in many homes, reflects the quiet revolution of families investing equally in their daughters.
Education has been the key driver in removing barriers to women’s advancement. A recent Chinese white paper details the progress made on ensuring women’s educational rights. In 2024, China boasted a 99.9% net enrolment rate for girls in primary school. Girls comprise more than 47% of pupils in compulsory education.
Today, women are not just catching up; they are leading, making up just over half of all higher education enrolments and 54% of those in adult undergraduate programs, according to a recent White Paper.
Women now account for 45.8% of all scientific researchers in China. They are claiming their space in emerging fields, comprising 42.3% of certified artificial intelligence trainers in 2024. In the internet sector, women represent more than half of the entrepreneurs.
On a recent trip back to my hometown, I remembered how my father used to drive two hours each way once a month to and from my old high school — a prestigious institution in another city — to pick me up and take me home for the weekend. Later, he watched me leave for university in Beijing, where I eventually settled down, built my career and started a family – becoming a “Tracy” in my own right.
My daughter interrupted my nostalgic daydream. “Mum, can’t we just stay here forever with Grandma and Grandpa?”
I almost considered it. In the two decades since I’d left, my hometown has built libraries, museums, shopping centres and even theme parks. To my little girl, my hometown has it all.
It is about ensuring that my daughter, and every girl in the world, grows up valued and respected. It is about securing her freedom and the right to choose her own path. It is about empowering every woman — whether she’s a “Tracy” in a quiet village or a “Cuihua” in a bustling metropolis — to find the opportunity and respect she needs to take control of her life wherever she decides to call home.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Ren Yan is a Beijing-based current affairs commentator. She writes on a wide range of topics on China, international politics and cross-culture communications.
The changes about which she writes, hopefully, will bring more women to prominence in the highest echelons of the Communist Party.
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#2 EXTRACTS – 3
THE COMMUNIST PARTY’S PLENARY MEETING APPROACHES
NIKKEI ASIA
“Chinese Communist Party leaders convene for a four-day plenary meeting to discuss the country’s next five-year plan. The gathering comes at a critical time, as the world’s second-largest economy faces multiple headwinds, including intensifying tensions with the U.S. Members of the party’s Central Committee, the top decision-making body, are expected to work on measures to steer China through the trade war, deflationary pressure, a prolonged property downturn and vicious price wars in key sectors like electric vehicles. China will announce its third-quarter gross domestic product on the same day the gathering begins.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
China has always faced “headwinds”. They are part and parcel of Government. What is the dominant issue? – Converting China from “a moderately prosperous economy” to “a prosperous economy” in time for the celebration in 2049 of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. But for BRICS and the trillions of USD committed to long term loans to developing countries, China would today be a prosperous country but it did not want to rush ahead and look after its own 1,4bn people to the exclusion of the countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Will the Chinese economy continue to grow? The current rate of growth is 4.8% – a number all Western countries would be so excited to achieve but their numbers falls significantly short. Back to China – Are new rules necessary to govern competition between the billionaire companies in electric vehicles, solar energy and artificial intelligence?
China has come a long way since the mid 1950’s when three issues dominated – the role of the People’s Communes; the Great Leap Forward; and the Centralisation of the Economy. It is useful to remind ourselves of the change in priorities occasioned by China’s economic growth and the emergence of Xi Jinping’s leadership. Soon the attention will focus on the change in personnel at the top of the Party as Xi Jinping reaches the end of his period of leadership. Will the change in Beijing be smooth or disruptive? Does the recent announcement of changes in personnel at the highest level of the military suggest that problems are being pre-empted to ensure the pending transition is not a cause for political turbulence?
Political leaders in the West and in Japan and South Korea need to obtain a mandate from the voters. Chinese leaders also have to obtain a mandate so that the new Party Chairman has credibility and those are the discussions that will take place as the time for change in the leadership approaches.
There are always different views in China – that has been the norm since 1921 when the Party was formed. And in China today there are some who want to introduce Western elements of civic power into the Chinese political process – the rule of law; regular elections; political candidates. They are few in number and their arguments will not muster significant support but they will be on the agenda because the chaos of the Cultural Revolution is never far from the minds of the Politburo who will not seek to incorporate either traditional Western political principles or Gang of Four Left Extremism into the challenge to build socialism with Chinese characteristics.
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#2 – EXTRACTS (4)
CHINA TOURISTS IN FAR EAST –
NIKKEI ASIA
“Some of China’s biggest hotel operators are undertaking major expansions into Southeast Asia, including Jin Jiang International, which plans to open 180 hotels in the region over five years in anticipation of growing travel from the Chinese mainland.
State-owned Jin Jiang — the largest hotel operator in China — signed a partnership with Malaysia’s Riyaz International in late August. The companies plan to open the new hotels in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines by around 2030.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS
This extract from Nikkei Asia follows the article in #594 carrying Travelex’s prediction that by 2030 the number of China’s foreign tourists will reach 200m.
Jin Jiang plans to open lodgings under five of its brands including Jinjiang Inn and Lavande. The company’s entries will range from luxury to economy hotels. Jin Jiang calls this expansion the biggest push for new sites overseas by a Chinese hotel operator.
H World International, one of the largest private hotel operators in China, will focus on opening new lodgings under its middle market brands. H World followed up a trial location in Singapore in 2019 with the opening of a midrange hotel in Cambodia’s Phnom Penh last year. The company also plans to open one of its midscale Ji hotels in Malaysia next year.”
Southeast Asia’s proximity to China makes it popular for Chinese travellers. Locations like Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore were close to Japan and South Korea in the ranking of popular destinations during the extended holiday season in China this month.
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#3 PART 19 – CHINA AND JACK PERRY
DR JI CHAOTING.
Part 18 concluded as follows
“Dr Ji continued “I became the assistant to H.H. Kung and I went to China with him. Of course, I had been a member of the Communist Party of China from my time at Beijing University. Nobody knew about that as my activities in the U.S. were not involved in politics. So in fact I acted as the Assistant to the Minister of Finance of the Chiang Government involved in the civil war against the Communists and I was there in their midst undercover throughout the War – he added with a smile.”
Jack prepares for his first tour of China with his travelling companion Dr Ji
– “I wondered about Ji’s reasons for extending this unusual invitation to me. I was no expert on China and had next to no experience in travelling to remote regions. Ji must have seen me as a litmus test to see how a person of my Western middle class background would react to China.
We got on well and were sure to be good travel partners. Ji was very careful (I realised in retrospect) not to overdo anything. He was keen to know what my interests were but I didn’t really have a very clear idea – knowing so little about China so I left to him to decide the programme.
We travelled through the countryside and visited many cities as well, talking to various people as we went along. Ji had a high reputation among the people who referred to him as Lao Ji – which meant ‘Old Man Ji’ – this prefix implies utmost respect for that person. Wherever we went we were well received.
The most interesting part of our travels was meeting everyday people from the villages and the countryside. These people had no pretensions, there was no attempt on their part to talk about their new ideology and their new state with any kind of pre-conceived political ideas. As far as they were concerned, they were part of a Confucian society in which authority weas always the main element and belonged to a nation that had suffered tremendously in the last 300 years. These people had been browbeaten and did not think they had any right to say anything. But we realised that this was beginning to change and that people were beginning to feel liberated enough to speak freely.
We visited several factories and met the workers drawn mainly from the textile and subsidiary industries. I was struck by their limited knowledge and Ji warned me in advance not to expect any likeness to factories in Europe or the U.S.
We also met a number of intellectuals who were suspicious of me and did not speak too openly. They were more reserved in their relationships which I thought was due to their doubts and anxieties about their own positions in China and whether or not they had a future in the new scheme.
The revolution in China had taken place four years earlier and the pace of the economic changes were quite staggering. Though I did not witness the take-over of lands from the landlords, the evidence of it was apparent everywhere we went. The feudal class had been abolished and the land had been split up to give the farmers a share.
As I recall my experiences on this trip, I realise how privileged I was to be among the few Westerners who came so close to the workings of a system that was poised to establish a new world power.
Wherever we went I noticed changes taking place on several fronts at all levels – industrial, economic, social and individual. People were keen to make me understand that there was a new China in the offing. The old order had been overturned.
We even lived on a Chinese farm – this was the reality of China. The agrarian economy – 80% of the people lived on the land and 20% lived in the cities. I noticed that everywhere we went people were working towards a goal – generally related to the infrastructure, the roads, sanitation and day-to-day running of the local authorities.
Illiteracy in China in 1953 was about 80% of the people (today China produces more PhD students than any other country – a big turnaround in 72 years). What I found engrossing was the attitude of the leaders to the peasants. The idea of people working together, cooperating and building a society that was devoid of class and social hierarchy. Wherever I went I saw people who were eager to participate in the responsibilities they now shared with their rulers. I remember talking to a group of people in one of the newly formed “Neighbourhood Committees”. In each City they would have groups of a few hundred people with leaders and so on and they would discuss the children, schooling, crime – almost everything that affected people’s lives was of interest to the Neighbourhood Committees. These groups sprang up all over China because for the first time people were able to participate in matters that concerned them.
The idea of people having control over their own lives was all very new at the time. That touched me as much as I think it did them. It had a tremendous effect on me and at the time I seriously considered devoting all my life to the Chinese people. In retrospect I think I have done.
I recall being taken to a building site just outside Beijing very early one morning. Dawn was breaking at 4am. As we came over the brow of a hill I could see what seemed to be ants. As we drew closer, I realised that they were people at least 40,000. Some were digging up the ground with spades, putting the earth into bamboo carriers and running a quarter of a mile to dump the soil in an area where more people were compressing it with their feet. They were building a dam, I was told, for hydro-electric power. I couldn’t believe it. This was 1953. I didn’t see a single piece of engineering equipment not even a drill. This was the first dam to be built in China after the revolution, across the Yangtze and they were doing it with 40,000 untrained people. It was an unbelievable sight and something I remember quite vividly.”
PART 20 – MORE ON DR JI CHAOTING AND THE NEW CHINA.
A closing comment. I recommend a lecture available on UTube by Professor John Mearsheimer – a well known U.S. academic who in his youth was a graduate of the U.S. military school – West Point. He is no Communist but he recognises the significant changes that are taking place affecting the decline of the U.S. and the rise of China. This together with a lead article by Robert Guest in the current issue of The Economist makes you realise we are fortunate enough to be living through a period of fundamental change in World Power.
GRAHAM PERRY
