GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
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CHINA AND THE NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
NIKKEI ASIA
“As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks to fill his cabinet with outspoken critics of Beijing, he is confronting a potentially tougher rival: a China that has been girding for an intensifying conflict between the powers, even at greater economic cost.
The first Trump administration had sparred with Beijing over trade and other matters. But the returning president’s new cabinet will have to deal with a changed China that, at least in some respects, looks better prepared, analysts told Nikkei Asia.
“The U.S. has been on the offense while China has accumulated more experience in its defense,” said Wu Xinbo, director at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “China is much more experienced in dealing with a chaotic Trump administration now.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Four years on from Trump’s first administration the situation is quite different. Trump may play hard ball. He may be flexible under the influence of Elon Musk. Either way, China is prepared for all options.
The over-arching global perspective remains the rise of China and the decline of the US. Momentum is on the side of China and the US is braced for a confrontation that has been building from before Deng Hsiaoping’s 1979 focus on economic growth, even before the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. This tension commenced with the formation of the Communist Party of China in 1921 – it goes back that far.
China was awakening. The Century of Humiliation that commenced in 1840 had stirred the instincts of the people and revolution was on the agenda. In turn the Party led the struggle in China against the exploitative landlords; against the Kuomintang; against Japan in World War II; and against the Gang of Four in 1976. It is the perspective that answers the question What Next? It is the Macro not the Micro. Seeing the whole picture is the only way to handle the question of the next four years. Where is China coming from? Where is the United States coming from?
Simply and succinctly China is on a long journey from poverty, impoverishment and wretchedness to growth, prosperity and strength.
China’s goal is not the defeat of the US. Its purpose is not to confront the US and beat it militarily or politically. China’s aim is none of these.
The US is not the target. For the US China is the target but that is a different matter. For today and for the forseeable future, China’s goal is modernity, prosperity and the realisation of its potential for growth and economic development.
This is a problem for the US and this is where concern and anxiety about the next four years arises. The rise of China challenges the US. This is the dynamic of history and this sets the agenda for the next four years in the short term and the next one hundred years in the long term if there is a long term.
In fact, there is room for the US and China together. The globe is so underdeveloped. There is still so much to do, so much to explore, so much to develop and that there is ample room for the two countries to work together. But politics gets in the way. And the issue – the overarching international global feature is the rise and fall of Empire. History makes clear that War often results when a Rising Nation confronts an Established Nation. Not every time and there have been occasions when hostilities have been avoided but rarely. The prevailing dynamic is War not Peace.
But why? Why is such conflict so inevitable? Because the Established Nation refuses to recognise the march of time. It digs in. It challenges the Rising Nation to displace it and War becomes the Agenda. Professor Allison has made his burgeoning international academic reputation on establishing this historical imperative – The Thucydides Trap. He is listened to intently in Washington and Beijing. Both sets of leaders know the historical imperative that governs the relationship between the Established USA and the Rising China. They know the overall picture, the global dynamic and the historical momentum. But politics rules and here the struggle of the next four years will focus on Trump’s determination to curb China and China’s determination to grow and develop.
The difference in the four years between Trump’s first administration and his second administration is China’s resilience. Today is not Yesterday. China is more prepared today than ever before for the cut and thrust of competition with Trump. It will be prepared to co-operate if Trump’s approach is, on occasions, balanced and fair-minded but it will be prepared for confrontation if Trump is determined to bring China to heel.
China has not been idle. Its export-oriented Chinese companies have re-routed supply chains to third countries or switched to serving other overseas markets after Trump slapped tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Local governments in China and state-backed enterprises have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into nurturing domestic production of chips and other cutting-edge technologies, despite evidence of increased wasteful investment.
China has also accelerated promotion of alternative financial arrangements to reduce its vulnerability in the wake of potential U.S. sanctions, while forging closer trade ties with countries in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia.
China is ready to work with the US subject to the Four No-Go Areas that President Xi Jinping spelt out at the Asia Pacific Economic Co=operation Forum in Peru. “The Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, pathways and systems, and development interests are China’s four red lines that must not be challenged.” said Xi.
What will happen? Which path will the world pursue? Will there be Co-operation or Confrontation? In a phrase There Will Be Both. There will be moments of co-operative focused exchanges and moments of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. And in amongst all the detail of ongoing contact there will be a moment in time which will reveal whether War can be avoided. Both sides will be on the Hot Line holding the Red Telephone. The stakes are that high.
GRAHAM PERRY
