GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
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#1 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
PROFESSOR LAWRENCE FREEDMAN
One of the great allures of military power is that it promises to bring conflicts to a quick and decisive conclusion. In practice, it rarely does.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Putin invaded Ukraine confident that a short sharp military strike into Ukraine would bring speedy and effective victory. Similarly, Israel assured the world that victory in Gaza would be rapid and decisive. As we all know both armed conflicts remain very active.
China and Taiwan? There is a big difference between sabre rattling on the one hand and decisive military action on the other. War will never break out between China and Taiwan.
Taiwan is unfinished business so far as China is concerned. No question, Xi Jinping would be a proud man if he could complete the reunification of China with the return to the fold of the renegade province of Taiwan. National pride is high on the agenda and the pulse of Chinese nationalism beats formidably in Beijing and all over China. The Sick Man of Asia of 1949 is on its way to becoming the Master of its own Frontiers – Taiwan included.
A recent BBC programme ‘Unspun’ introduced by veteran political correspondent – John Simpson – underlined the absence of war talk and even war preparation in Taiwan. The last item in Xi’s In-Tray is ‘Attack Taiwan’. It won’t happen.
There will be plenty of aggressive talk and close military shaves. But the situation is fluid and flexible and not firm and unchangeable and Beijing is populated by experienced senior diplomats who will always be looking for a diplomatic solution that allows China to bring Taiwan within the political embrace of the People’s Republic of China and, at the same time, allows Taiwan a significant measure of initiative and self-administration short of independence. No U.S. President in Washington is going to take on the risk of outright hostilities with China in the Taiwan Straits thousands of miles from the U.S. And every Chinese leader will avoid any possibility of intentionally triggering a military conflict over Taiwan.
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#2 CHINA WON’T PANIC.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Behind the daily statements issued by U.S. and China leaders there is a harsh reality. Trump’s tariffs are intended to hurt; to inflict pain on Chinese companies and to stir discontent. It is what is often referred to as “the jugular moment” when the knife penetrates the neck with the intention of causing death. Trump is on the front foot. He is exercising maximum pressure. He is after “the kill”.
Beijing won’t panic. They are under pressure because Trump has selected a weapon which imposes maximum pain in the shortest time. But China has anticipated the Trump attack. They have seen it coming since before even the fall of the USSR in 1991. Ever since the U.S. made the mistake in the mid 1930’s of backing Chiang Kaishek and the KMT instead of Mao Tsetung and the CP there has been the ever-present possibility of a US strike against “Communist” China. It had to come.
The Korean War in the early 1950s was a warning and later in the 1960s when the US stationed 500,000 soldiers in Vietnam, China considered the real U.S. target was China. US military leaders spoke in these terms at the time. It did not happen but it was always going to happen – recall the three key historical dates – 1848, 1917 and 1949.
Things are going to get very unpleasant. The Established Power is being challenged by the Rising Power. War is probable but War is not inevitable. That depends on the leaders in the U.S. and China. If they fail to reach an accommodation, the blue touch paper will be close to being lit.
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#3 U.S. CHARGES STEEP FEES FOR CHINESE-BUILT SHIPS
THE UK GUARDIAN
“The Trump Administration is pressing ahead with plans to charge steep fees for Chinese-built ships that stop at US ports in an effort to revive its shipbuilding industry, but has scaled back the penalties after warnings about the impact upon consumers. The proposals prompted a backlash from US domestic industries which warned the charges would increase prices for US consumers.
Under the USTR’s plans (The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative), there will be a separate fees charged for Chinese-operated and Chinese-built ships. The fees for Chinese-built vessels will begin at $18 per net ton or $120 per container which could mean that a ship loaded with 15,000 containers would be charged $1.8m.
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
China is now the world’s top shipowner, increasingly distancing itself from the other contenders. According to the latest data from Clarksons Research, the People’s Republic of China now has a 282.9 million GT commercial fleet. Greece is in second place with a fleet 254 million GT.
The Chinese also have an orderbook totalling 46.7 million GT, whereas Greece’s orderbook amounts to 35.4 million GT. China’s merchant shipping fleet currently accounts for one seventh of the global merchant shipping fleet.
There is method in the U.S. madness – the U.S. hopes to damage China’s foreign trade by increasing the cost to China of berthing their vessels at U.S. ports. It will hurt China and it will hurt the U.S. consumer who will either be denied product from China or be compelled to pay a higher price. Quite simply China is being squeezed and Washington hopes that the pips will squeak loudly. China’s reaction will be two fold; first, it will not pretend that there will not be pain – there will. Second, China has planned and prepared for this eventuality and is digging in for the long term.
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#4 MAO TSETUNG ON CHINESE TELEVISION
CCTV – CHINA
Recall the three part historical summary.
“Mao saved the Country. Deng saved the Economy. Xi saved the Party”
This is a useful shorthand summary of Chinese history since the foundation of the Communist Party in 1921. It focuses on the fundamental importance of the Country, the Economy and the Party. Today China is facing challenges to its existence. Tariffs of 125% imposed by the US are intended to bring China to its knees. China has anticipated these Trump inspired trade challenges. It would prefer that the challenges went away but they won’t. China has always been aware that its existence and its economic growth would bring about a hard-nosed aggressive U.S. reaction. Trump has delivered and China will respond.
It is in this context that historical photos of Mao prior to 1949 have featured prominently in recent days in the Chinese media. Mao is highly regarded in China for the leading role he played in bringing about the creation of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949. Trump’s Tariffs are aimed at overthrowing Mao’s China – hence the appeal to the people of China to stand up and be counted. Mao led the Party and the Country to victory over the KMT and the Japanese.
And it is in this context that he saved the country. The spirit that imbued the Long March and the Three Civil Wars against the KMT and the Patriotic World War II against Japan is recalled today to stiffen the resolve of the 1.4bn people to resist Trump’s efforts to force China to change direction.
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#5 THOMAS FRIEDMAN
THE NEW YORK TIMES
“The question for Beijing — and the rest of the world — is: How will China use all the surpluses it has generated? Will it invest them in making a more menacing military? Will it invest them in more high-speed rail lines and six-lane highways to cities that don’t need them? Or will it invest in more domestic consumption and services while offering to build the next generation of Chinese factories and supply lines in America and Europe with 50-50 ownership structures? We need to encourage China to make the right choices. But at least China has choices.
Compare that with the choices Trump is making. He is undermining our sacred rule of law, he is tossing away our allies, he is undermining the value of the dollar and he is shredding any hope of national unity. He’s even got Canadians now boycotting Las Vegas because they don’t like to be told we will soon own them
So, you tell me who’s playing with a pair of twos.
If Trump doesn’t stop his rogue behavior, he’s going to destroy all the things that made America strong, respected and prosperous.
I have never been more afraid for America’s future in my life.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Thomas Friedman is the lead opinion journalist for the New York Times. He is clear about his concerns. He is a very worried pro-America loyalist. He states that he has “never been more afraid for America’s future in my life”.
There are many, like Friedman, who cannot believe the descent of the U.S. into naked extremism. Every day we are treated to new outrages as Trump uses the power of the office of President to rewrite the democratic manual. But this Column is concerned about Friedman’s comments about China. Will China, asks Friedman, use its newly generated surpluses to “invest them in making a more menacing military?”
Leaving aside the observation that there are few, if any, “peaceful militaries” anywhere in the world, he poses the question as to whether China’s expanding economy will merely be used to build more aircraft carriers, and destroyers. Is China all about power and is its key #1 ambition to intimidate all its neighbours with an ever-expanding show of force?
He does not address one inescapable fact – why does China have just one overseas military base (in Djibouti to service its large maritime fleet of merchant ships) whilst the US has more than 800?
China is not building an Empire. It does not seek to acquire the U.S. or the U.K. or Europe, or for that matter, Africa, Asia or Latin America. It is not expansionist. Its military has been developed for two reasons;-
First, China which shares common borders with fourteen countries has strengthened its military because it has been involved – albeit only episodically – in disputes with some neighbouring countries eg India and the Philippines in recent years.
Second, to address the military challenge of the US whose pivot to Asia has involved a substantial transfer of its military to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits.
China has read the signals. It has tracked the development of growing U.S. military presence in the Far East. It knows that its focus is China. China is well prepared – for a horrendous war if necessary. Its preference is an accommodation with Washington that allows the two giants – China and the US – to build together and to resist impulses to War.
GRAHAM PERRY
