GOOD MORNING FROM LONDON
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
“China has not only expanded its number of operational nuclear warheads to 600 but improved the diversity and sophistication of its arsenal, the Pentagon said in a report released on Wednesday.
“China had a very, very small, relatively outdated nuclear arsenal” two decades ago, said Michael Chase, US deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, at the report’s launch at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
“What we’ve seen over time is that they’ve expanded to a nuclear triad, with the [People’s Liberation Army] Navy having ballistic missile submarines conducting deterrence patrols,” Chase continued.
In addition, in recent years, there has been “increasing diversity in capabilities like precision-strike capable missiles with lower-yield nuclear warheads”, he added.
#As of May 2023, the Pentagon estimated that China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads. By mid-2024, that number had surged by about 20 per cent to 600, according to Wednesday’s report.
By comparison, the US had 3,748 active nuclear warheads as of 2023, according to the Department of Energy.
It has maintained that it will keep its nuclear force at a level necessary to meet its national-security needs.
“The Chinese logic holds that once a retaliatory capability threshold is met, marginal increases in nuclear weapons thereafter have no strategic significance,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University in her latest book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power, released in October.”
GRAHAM PERRY COMMENTS;-
Q Does China want War?
A No
Q. Is China preparing for War?
A. Yes
Q Does China want to dominate the world?
A No
Q Why then is China arming itself?
A 800 to 1
Q What does 800 to 1 mean?
A The US has 800+ military bases spread around the globe.
China has just one. China feels very threatened.
Q Are the US bases spread evenly around the globe?
A No
Q Where is the US military concentrated?-
A In the Far East – overwhelmingly
Q But China says it will take back Taiwan by force –
A Yes if necessary
Q But isn’t that a Declaration of War –
A No, Taiwan is a part of China
Q Who says so?
A The US – and China – both said so in the February 1971 Shanghai Communique
Q But China has border disputes with its neighbours?
A Yes – a few
Q So China is ready to go to war with its neighbours?
A China won’t go to war with its neighbours. On the contrary China conducts joint military skills with its neighbours.
Q The US has two land neighbours – Mexico and Canada. How many land neighbours does China have?
A 14. And with some there are border disputes – India, Japan, Vietnam.
Q So China is preparing to go to war with the three neighbours
A No. It has had border skirmishes recently with India. Soldiers were killed but negotiations have replaced hostilities. Thee will be no War.
Q Will the US go to war with China
A Yes maybe
Q Why?
A Because the US is about to be dislodged from being the World’s #1 Economy by China
Q Why does that mean War
A Because the US cannot accept being #2. It has to be #1
Q So China can avoid provoking the US by remaining the #2 economic power?
A China will not slow down its economic progress to accommodate the US ego.
Q So is War inevitable?
A No. It depends
Q Depends on what?
A On who blinks first. The US and China are eyeball to eyeball
Q Do you think there will be War?
A No because China will retaliate by attacking US bases in Japan, S Korea, the Philippines. Those countries will make clear that supporting the US does not mean going to war with China. They will stop supporting the US.
Q So the US bases in the countries that surround China will be a target?
A Yes. These countries will not want their countries attacked simply because the US is challenged by China’s progress.
Q The world is finely balanced?
A The line up of forces is clear. China has improving relations with the countries of the Far East. These countries will let the US down. Remember it was Japan suffered Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Q Is there an alternative to War?
A Yes, Peace – long term peace – is possible but for that to happen the US has to accept the movement of history. Time is not on the side of the US
Q But that means that China becomes the New #1 Giant – all powerful, all conquering?
A No, China believes in a multi-polar world with many different points of major influence including Argentine, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Turkey. The Post US Imperial world will look quite different.
Q You make it sound dramatic?
A Not really – the world is always changing. The US Century is passing. The next stage in world development beckons. Exciting times ahead
Q China’s Century?
A China will be a factor – but only one factor. Multi-polar means power shared and not power dominated.
Regards
Graham Perry
